有色及贵金属周报合集-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and Silver: Gold prices oscillated downward with a retracement of bullish sentiment, while silver saw a rise in risk appetite. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 103 to 99.5. Gold entered an overbought zone, and the reversal of Trump's stance on tariffs contributed to the price decline. The report suggested using options for trading when gold trading becomes difficult due to high volatility [7]. - Copper: The driving logic of copper is anchored in two aspects: strong fundamentals with a definite decline in supply and the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policy. If the tariff policy eases, it will resonate with the fundamental logic and support prices. The report recommended that industrial players focus on unilateral buying at low prices, test calendar spreads, and wait for cross - market arbitrage opportunities [85][86]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver 3.1.1 Market Performance - Gold prices declined, with London gold falling by -0.86%, while silver prices rose, with London silver increasing by 3.17%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 103 to 99.5. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 2.02%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.29%, and the dollar index reached 99.58 [7]. 3.1.2 Price Drivers - The reversal of Trump's stance on tariffs, including positive statements on trade prospects and the indication of potential tariff reduction, alleviated market concerns and contributed to the decline in gold prices [7]. 3.1.3 Trading and Investment - Given the high volatility in gold trading, the report recommended using options for trading configuration [7]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Market Performance - Copper prices were affected by Trump's tariff policy and fundamental factors. The import loss of copper concentrates widened to about 3,400 yuan/ton, and the price spread between COMEX and LME copper rose above $1,400 [83][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates was expected to be more tense, with the spot TC dropping to -$42.52/ton and smelters' losses exceeding 3,400 yuan/ton. The import volume of recycled copper was likely to decline, increasing the probability of smelter shutdowns or production cuts in the second half of the year [85]. - Demand: Domestic copper inventories were being depleted at a faster pace, and spot premiums were strengthening, indicating strong buying power from downstream and end - user enterprises. Grid orders increased significantly, and new energy power generation and communication orders improved marginally, driving copper consumption [85]. 3.2.3 Uncertainty from Tariff Policy - Trump's tariff policy was unpredictable, increasing market volatility. Although there were signs of potential policy adjustment, the overall increase in US import tariffs could still affect global copper consumption growth in the long run [85]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Based on the fundamental logic, investors were advised to look for phased trading opportunities. Physical enterprises could consider buying at low prices when the tariff policy eases [85].