流动性与机构行为跟踪:资金面均衡运行,预计平稳跨月
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-04-27 10:58

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The capital market is expected to maintain a balanced operation and smoothly cross the month. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit (CDs) will decrease to 330 billion next week, and the supply - side pressure will decline marginally. The yield of CDs is expected to fluctuate. The secondary - market transactions of institutions are currently light, and interest rates are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Fund Review: The central bank increased its investment to support the funds during the tax period - The central bank had a net investment of 66.18 billion yuan in funds throughout the week. The 7 - day OMO stock increased to 97.2 billion yuan. The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar by 2 basis points during the statistical period [11]. - In terms of fund structure, the net lending scale of large - state - owned banks increased to 2.87 trillion yuan, and the key - term fund interest rates decreased after the tax period. The overall fund situation showed "increasing volume and decreasing price" [17]. 1.2 CD Review: The secondary - market interest rate of CDs stabilized, and the buying power increased marginally - In the primary market, the net financing scale of inter - bank CDs was 18.647 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate decreased. In the secondary market, the core buyers' buying power increased marginally, and the spread between the secondary - market interest rate of CDs and the fund interest rate widened [19][24]. 1.3 Next Week's Focus: The capital market is expected to maintain a balanced operation and smoothly cross the month - The MLF was over - renewed for the second consecutive month, injecting 50 billion yuan of medium - and long - term liquidity. The market's expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has been postponed. The capital market is expected to remain balanced, and the yield of CDs is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. 2. Weekly Institutional Behavior and Micro - structure Review 2.1 Institutional Behavior Review: The bond - buying power of funds remains weak - In the past week, the net bond - buying scale of funds was weak, and they mainly bought a small amount of general credit bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, and CDs. Rural commercial banks had a strong demand for interest - rate bonds, mainly net - buying 3 - 10 - year treasury bonds [31]. - In the short term, the secondary - market transactions of institutions are light, and interest rates are expected to continue to fluctuate [31]. 2.2 Micro - structure Tracking: The duration of bond funds declined slightly - On April 25, the median durations of medium - and long - term bond funds and medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds were 3.16 years and 4.08 years respectively, showing a slight decline. The bond - market leverage ratio was 106.86% last week, a slight decrease from the previous period [3][75]. - The 10Y China Development Bank bond - 10Y treasury bond term spread continued to fluctuate, and the inversion pattern between the 1Y China Development Bank bond and R001 continued [84].