YANGYUAN(SH:603156) Soochow Securities·2025-04-27 11:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is expected to be 60.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.69%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 17.22 billion yuan, an increase of 17.35% [6] - The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 18.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.14%, with a net profit of 4.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 177.02% [6] - The company maintains a high cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 100%, with total cash dividends and buybacks amounting to 18.22 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 60.58 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -1.69% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 17.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.35% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.37 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.46 [1][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 46.53%, a slight increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is projected to be 1,431 million yuan [12] Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from walnut milk for 2024 is estimated at 53.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.86% year-on-year, while functional beverages are expected to generate 6.5 billion yuan, an increase of 45.02% [6] - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.7% [6] Future Outlook - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 13.56 billion yuan and 13.93 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 15.05 billion yuan [6] - The company is expected to stabilize and recover its revenue in the future as the market environment improves [6]