可转债周报20250427：转债主体2025Q1业绩前瞻-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market valuation has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level in the long term, with a good risk premium ratio for allocation. The domestic economic fundamentals still have room for recovery, and the export growth rate may decline due to the base effect. Attention should be paid to the implementation of fiscal policies and market gaming under incremental policies. [18] - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking convertible bond supply. The current valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and it is expected that the subsequent valuation center of convertible bonds will fluctuate moderately within a range. [18] - In terms of industries, attention should be paid to popular themes, the domestic demand direction, and high-dividend sectors under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, as well as the military industry. [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1.1 2025Q1 Performance Outlook of Convertible Bond Entities - As of April 25, 2025, 217 out of 474 convertible bonds (45.8%) have disclosed their Q1 reports, and 9 have disclosed performance forecasts. Most convertible bond entities' revenues in 2025Q1 increased compared to the same period last year. [1][9] - In terms of industries, convertible bond entities in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non-ferrous metals industries had relatively high year-on-year growth rates in Q1 revenues and net profits attributable to the parent. Entities in the light manufacturing, national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and automobile industries had significant year-on-year profit declines. Loss-making entities were mainly concentrated in the computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical and biological industries. [1][10] - Among the 217 convertible bond entities, 93 achieved year-on-year growth in both revenues and net profits attributable to the parent, and attention should be paid to their convertible bond conversion tendencies. 58 entities had year-on-year declines in both revenues and net profits, and attention should be paid to their subsequent convertible bond ratings and performance recovery. [2][10] 3.2 1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A-share market rose collectively. As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.74%. [17][18] - The current A-share market valuation has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level in the long term. The domestic economic fundamentals still have room for recovery, and the export growth rate may decline due to the base effect. [18] - On the convertible bond level, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking convertible bond supply. The current valuation of convertible bonds is in a reasonable range, and it is expected that the subsequent valuation center of convertible bonds will fluctuate moderately within a range. [18] 3.3 2.1 Equity Market Rise - This week, the equity market rose. The Wind All A Index rose 1.15%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.74%. The market style was more inclined to small-cap value. [22] - Most industries rose this week. The automobile, beauty care, and basic chemical industries led the market, while the food and beverage, real estate, and coal industries were among the top decliners. [24] 3.4 2.2 Convertible Bond Market Rise, Decline in Overall Market Premium Rate - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.90%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.85%, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.95%. The average daily trading volume of convertible bonds increased. [3][28] - At the industry level of convertible bonds, 28 industries rose and 1 fell. The media, automobile, and computer industries led the market in terms of gains. At the corresponding underlying stock level, 22 industries rose and 7 fell. [31] - Most individual convertible bonds rose this week. The top five convertible bonds in terms of weekly gains were Fuxin Convertible Bond, Zhenhua Convertible Bond, Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2, Limin Convertible Bond, and Zhongqi Convertible Bond; the top five in terms of weekly losses were Huicheng Convertible Bond, Xuerong Convertible Bond, Huafeng Convertible Bond, Daoen Convertible Bond, and Liugong Convertible Bond 2. [32][34] - The number of absolute low-price convertible bonds decreased this week. The median price of convertible bonds in the entire market rose. The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate decreased. [36][41] 3.5 2.3 High-Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.5.1 Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all parities rose. Historically, high-parity convertible bonds are more elastic. [45] - This week, equity-biased, balanced, and debt-biased convertible bonds all rose. Historically, equity-biased convertible bonds are more elastic, and balanced convertible bonds are more resistant to declines. [46][47] - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Historically, high-rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while AA- rated convertible bonds have performed poorly, and low-rated convertible bonds have shown weaker resistance to declines and greater rebound strength. [49] - This week, convertible bonds of all sizes rose. Since 2023, small-cap convertible bonds have recorded a 9.91% return, small and medium-cap convertible bonds 11.27%, medium-cap convertible bonds 8.02%, and large-cap convertible bonds 7.43%. [51] 3.5.2 Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of all types of convertible bonds rose. The valuations of balanced and equity-biased convertible bonds increased; the valuations of convertible bonds of all parities increased, with a significant increase in the valuation of (80, 90] parity convertible bonds; the valuation of AAA-rated convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of other rated convertible bonds decreased; the valuation of large-cap convertible bonds increased, while the valuations of other classified convertible bonds decreased. [53] - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds have bottomed out and rebounded. The conversion premium rates of equity-biased and balanced convertible bonds are currently below the 35% and around the 50% quantiles since 2017, respectively. [55] - The conversion premium rates of convertible bonds of all ratings have fluctuated slightly. Currently, the premium rates of high-rated convertible bonds are relatively low. [56] 3.6 3.1 This Week's Primary Plan Issuance - This week, 3 new convertible bonds were listed, 0 were pending issuance, and 1 was pending listing. There were 8 primary approvals this week. [62] - Since the beginning of 2023 to April 25, 2025, there have been a total of 90 planned convertible bonds, with a total scale of 148.527 billion yuan. [66] 3.7 3.2 Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - As of April 25, 2025, 21 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revisions, 31 announced no downward revisions, 4 proposed downward revisions, and 3 actually had downward revisions. [5][69] - This week, 0 convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemptions, 1 announced no early redemption, and 2 announced early redemptions. [5][72][73] - As of the end of this week, there was 1 convertible bond still in the put option declaration period and 30 still in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period. Attention should be paid to the price changes of convertible bonds and the marginal changes in the company's downward revision tendency. [5][75]