金属行业周报：美关税政策态度缓和，避险情绪降温致黄金暂承压-20250427

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the metal industry, particularly for copper and aluminum, while recommending a focus on gold investments due to its relative certainty [1][2]. Core Insights - The easing of US tariff policies has led to a decrease in risk aversion, positively impacting market sentiment. However, upcoming economic data, especially for April, could influence market expectations regarding potential short-term recession risks [1]. - The report emphasizes the strong supply-demand fundamentals in the copper and aluminum markets, which have exceeded expectations this year, despite recession risks not being entirely ruled out [1]. - Long-term trends in the metal market are expected to shift back towards supply issues and new consumption drivers, with a specific recommendation to focus on gold investments and consider increasing positions in copper [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The metal industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 3929.7 billion, with 233 listed companies [2]. - The industry index for non-ferrous metals showed a weekly increase of 1.50%, ranking 10th among sectors [6]. Performance Metrics - Absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -7.5%, 6.3%, and 14.2% respectively, while relative performance is -3.8%, 10.6%, and 6.9% [4]. Key Metal Insights - Copper: As of April 24, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 51,700 tons, marking a continuous decline for eight weeks. The price of copper is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by robust demand [6][7]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 658,000 tons, with a strong operating rate of 97.6% for electrolytic aluminum. The report anticipates a significant increase in aluminum consumption driven by high-voltage investments starting in June [7]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices fluctuated, reaching over 3,500 USD/oz before retreating due to easing tariff concerns. The report suggests that inflationary pressures will continue to support gold prices in the medium term [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals in the copper and aluminum sectors, such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Yunnan Copper, while also highlighting investment opportunities in the gold sector [1][6][7].