策略周报：出口下行期的配置思路-20250427

Group 1 - The report identifies three significant export downturn periods in China: 2009-2014, 2016-2018, and 2023, with varying internal demand drivers such as infrastructure and consumption [4][12][14] - During the 2009-2014 downturn, the primary internal demand sectors were infrastructure and manufacturing, influenced by global economic crises [12] - The 2016-2018 period saw real estate and consumption as key internal demand sectors, impacted by trade protectionism and economic adjustments [13] - In 2023, the internal demand sectors shifted to consumption and infrastructure, driven by global economic slowdown and trade tensions [14] Group 2 - The report outlines structural policy responses during the three export downturns, emphasizing the need for export facilitation, infrastructure investment, and consumption stimulation [5][17] - Export policies evolved from short-term measures to stabilize trade to long-term structural optimization, focusing on enhancing trade facilitation and exploring new markets [18] - Infrastructure policies transitioned from traditional projects to major engineering and new infrastructure initiatives, particularly in response to economic challenges [18] - Real estate policies shifted from strict controls to significant relaxations, reflecting the changing economic landscape [20] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market during these downturns shows that the technology sector often outperformed, while the export chain struggled, particularly during the 2016-2018 period [22][24] - In the first downturn (2009-2014), the technology sector benefited from the smartphone boom, while the export chain lagged significantly by 26.08% in 2014 [23] - The second downturn (2016-2018) saw the red chip and internal demand chains perform relatively well, while the technology sector faced a downturn due to high valuations [24][28] - In 2023, the technology sector led the market, driven by innovations in artificial intelligence and digital economy, while the export chain remained under pressure [29][30]