2025年一季度地产持仓点评：低配幅度缩小，增持龙头、优质民企

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing of the underweight position in the real estate sector, with an increase in holdings of leading and quality private enterprises [10] - Public fund holdings in the real estate sector decreased by 1.98% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 54.84 billion yuan, with a relative underweight of 0.49 percentage points compared to standard industry allocation [10] - The report highlights a recovery in the market value of residential property development, with a 7.19% increase in holdings, while non-residential property development saw a significant decline of 52.14% [10] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings - Total market value of public fund holdings in the real estate sector was 54.84 billion yuan, down 1.98% quarter-on-quarter [10] - The sector's holdings accounted for 0.79% of total stock investment, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous quarter [10] - The underweight position relative to standard industry allocation decreased by 0.06 percentage points [10] Heavyweight Stocks - The threshold for the top 15 heavyweight stocks was 50 million yuan, down 75.05% from the previous quarter [18] - The top five stocks by market value were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, Vanke A, and Jindi Group, accounting for 27.95% of the sector's total market value, an increase of 2.85 percentage points [18] - A total of 15 real estate companies saw increased public fund holdings, with the top three being Jindi Group (+12 funds), Binjiang Group (+12 funds), and New Town Holdings (+11 funds) [20] Northbound and Southbound Capital - Northbound capital holdings in the real estate sector totaled 12.77 billion yuan, down 22.09% quarter-on-quarter [33] - The top five stocks for northbound capital were Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, Vanke A, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and Daming City, accounting for 54.07% of the sector's total market value [33] - Southbound capital holdings increased by 8.59% to 88 billion yuan, with the top five stocks being China Resources Land, China Overseas Development, Country Garden Services, Vanke Enterprises, and Sunac China [40] Market Performance - The new housing market saw a transaction volume of 2.13 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.65% [4] - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction volume of 2.27 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 18.76% [4] - The land market had a total transaction area of 1.314 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution, policy relief, and demand improvement [47] - Recommended stocks include quality non-state-owned enterprises such as Longfor Group, Jindi Group, New Town Holdings, and Binjiang Group [47] - Emphasis on regional enterprises with differentiated city fundamentals and market share growth logic [47]