煤系下跌拖累铁合金下行,五月暂时观望
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-04-27 13:56
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the prices of ferromanganese - silicon (MnSi) futures declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand situation of MnSi was relatively balanced, but the market still had accumulated surpluses. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, exerting negative pressure on MnSi [3][6][57]. - In April 2025, the price of ferrosilicon (FeSi) fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. The price of FeSi was affected by electricity prices, which were closely related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined [4][11][59]. - Looking ahead to May, the surplus of MnSi may be marginally alleviated, but the surplus pattern still exists. There is still the negative impact of Australian manganese ore shipments to be realized in May, so MnSi may remain weak. However, if the low price persists, the shortage of manganese ore will intensify again. There is a high probability that MnSi will experience a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi is still affected by coal prices. In May, it is still the off - season for thermal coal, and the decline of raw materials is expected to remain unchanged. After the production cut in April, the supply - demand situation of FeSi will improve. In May, it will mainly fluctuate, waiting for the peak season of coal - fired power in summer to provide obvious support [4][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - MnSi: In April 2025, MnSi futures prices declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand was balanced, production declined significantly in April after rising in March, and the daily average production was at a low level. The inventory still increased, and the market had accumulated surpluses. Manganese ore inventory fluctuated at a low level, with a slight shortage. The Australian ore of South32 is expected to resume shipments in the second quarter. The absolute price of MnSi was low, and there was no obvious fundamental driver. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, negatively affecting MnSi. The steel tender price in April was delayed and fell below 6,000 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated at a high level in April [3][6][7]. - FeSi: In April 2025, FeSi prices fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. FeSi prices were affected by electricity prices, which were related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined. The prices of iconic steel mills for FeSi decreased month - by - month, and the basis increased as the price of FeSi fell [4][11][14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on MnSi and FeSi - In December 2024, the Lanzhou Industry and Information Technology Bureau carried out energy - saving supervision on the ferroalloy industry. In February 2025, the long - term contract shipments from Gabon decreased from 300,000 tons to 120,000 tons. Due to the impact of tropical cyclone Zelia, the mining in some areas of Oceania was suspended, affecting the production and shipment of manganese ore. Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The Chinese government will implement a new round of rural road improvement actions and adopt more active macro - policies [17][18][20]. MnSi Supply - In 2024, the MnSi industry cut production. From January to March 2025, the production was similar to that at the beginning of 2024, and it is expected to decline in April. In March 2025, the national comprehensive starting rate of MnSi production enterprises was 49.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.21%. The production in March was 899,115 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. The production profit of MnSi was poor at the beginning of 2025, and then turned negative again. The industry had serious over - capacity, especially in the north. In April, the import profit of manganese ore was generally poor, and the spot price of manganese ore declined. As of February 2025, South32's Australian ore had not shipped, and the Australian ore of United Mining was also affected by the hurricane and could not be shipped in the second quarter. In March 2025, China's total manganese ore imports were 1.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.60%. The manganese ore inventory was at a low level in the past five years, and there was a slight increase in April compared with March. Although the current inventory was low, there would be no hard shortage in the market [21][25][31]. MnSi Demand - The demand for MnSi mainly comes from the steel - making industry, especially for rebar. In 2024, the demand declined significantly, and there were signs of stabilization at the beginning of 2025, with a year - on - year increase in March. In March 2025, China's rebar production was 1.8611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Due to the high cost of small and medium - sized manganese mines and the profit - protection measures of large mines, MnSi is not expected to maintain a long - term low price. In the short - to - medium - term, MnSi may be weak in May, but in the long - term, there is a possibility of a strong independent market in the fourth quarter [40][41]. FeSi Production Profit - From January to April 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of FeSi decreased. Before March, the profit of FeSi improved, and production increased. However, after April, FeSi prices continued to decline significantly, and the profit of using grid electricity to produce FeSi turned negative, so the production of FeSi decreased month - on - month in April [43]. FeSi Production - In March 2025, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate of FeSi production enterprises was 60.57%, a month - on - month increase of 6.61%. The production in March was 502,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. However, the latest FeSi production has decreased significantly. It is estimated that the production in April will be about 440,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase. The decline in FeSi prices is highly correlated with the decline in coal prices [46]. FeSi Demand - In 2025, the export of FeSi decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month in March. In March 2025, China's FeSi export volume was 31,523.207 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.46% but a year - on - year decrease of 15.45%. The main export regions are Asia. If the domestic coal prices continue to decline, the export of FeSi is expected to increase. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for FeSi, increased slightly at a low level in 2025. In March, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 0.5% month - on - month. In 2025, the steel production showed signs of recovery at the beginning of the year, but there were frequent news of production restrictions. From the current supply - demand situation, the FeSi market has limited room for large fluctuations [48][51][55]. Summary and Outlook - In April 2025, the price of MnSi futures declined steadily, and the main contract shifted from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand of MnSi was balanced, but there were still surpluses. Macro factors had a negative impact. In April, the price of FeSi fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. In May, MnSi may remain weak, but there is a high probability of a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi will mainly fluctuate in May, waiting for the support from the peak season of coal - fired power in summer [57][59].