天风证券晨会集萃-20250428

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that market trends often experience multiple phases of decline before a significant upward trend, characterized by a W-shaped bottoming period with volume contraction followed by expansion [1] - It identifies that the market's main line is driven by both policy certainty and industry logic, suggesting that long-term logic is crucial for sustained growth in any sector [1] - Three scenarios are outlined where sectors may not develop into main lines post-bottoming: defensive sectors attracting short-term capital, sectors with weak short-term policy support, and sectors that do not optimize their structure post-bottoming [1] Group 2 - The April Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a shift in policy focus to ensure internal stability before engaging in international economic struggles [2][8] - High-frequency indicators show a decline in China's EPMI index, suggesting a contraction in economic activity, with significant drops in product orders and imports [2] - The report suggests that the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, with recommendations for sector allocation focusing on internet and consumer sectors [2] Group 3 - The report indicates that the 30-day moving average of the All A Index is a pressure point, with the market entering a downtrend, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the profitability effect [3] - It recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from a turnaround, such as healthcare and new energy, while also highlighting the technology sector under the domestic substitution trend [3] - The report suggests maintaining a neutral position until the pressure point is breached, given the current market conditions [3] Group 4 - The report discusses the need for timely implementation of incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances, indicating that the absence of new policies is due to the incomplete rollout of existing ones [8][29] - It emphasizes the importance of accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special bonds to support economic stability [8][29] - The report notes that the current policy approach mirrors strategies used during the early pandemic period, focusing on stabilizing key economic areas before further stimulus [29] Group 5 - The report highlights that the consumer electronics industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in export chains due to a more relaxed attitude from the U.S. regarding tariffs [12] - It notes that TSMC's 2nm process is progressing well, with expectations for increased demand driven by hardware upgrades [12] - The report also mentions Huawei's upcoming product launches, which are anticipated to make significant advancements in smart technology [12] Group 6 - The report indicates that the home appliance sector continues to show resilience, with a double-digit growth in exports despite tariff impacts, driven by strong demand in North America [17] - It suggests that the upcoming peak season for air conditioning and promotional events in May could further boost domestic retail sales [17] - The report recommends several key players in the home appliance sector, including Midea and Gree, as potential investment opportunities [17] Group 7 - The report on the pharmaceutical sector highlights the innovative transition of the company, focusing on differentiated PD-1 therapies that address unmet clinical needs [18] - It notes the company's established international experience and the potential for significant growth in global markets, particularly with its biosimilar products [18] - The report emphasizes the expected approval of innovative drugs in Europe, which could drive future revenue growth [18] Group 8 - The report discusses the energy sector, particularly the performance of satellite chemicals, which saw a significant increase in net profit driven by strong ethane cracking profits [21] - It highlights the expected doubling of ethylene production capacity due to new projects, which could enhance profitability [21] - The report also notes the favorable pricing environment for propionic acid, which is expected to contribute positively to the company's financial performance [21]