Soochow Securities·2025-04-28 01:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The solid waste sector is expected to enhance dividends and return on equity (ROE), supported by a decrease in capital expenditure and improved free cash flow as the industry matures [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable growth, price reforms, and increased dividends, suggesting a comprehensive allocation strategy focusing on domestic demand-driven assets [11][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The solid waste sector is entering a mature phase, leading to a significant improvement in free cash flow and dividend payouts. For instance, Junxin Co. plans to distribute 507 million yuan in cash dividends for 2024, a 37% increase, with a dividend payout ratio of 94.59% [9] - The report highlights the growth of the environmental sanitation equipment market, with a 51% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales in the first quarter of 2025, reaching a penetration rate of 14.36% [27][28] Company Tracking - Green Power reported a 33% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by reduced costs and increased heating supply, with a significant rise in free cash flow [9] - Junxin Co. achieved a 31% revenue growth in 2024, with a net profit of 536 million yuan, reflecting strong performance from new projects [9] - The report notes that Jingjin Equipment experienced a 92% increase in revenue from supporting equipment, despite a slight decline in overall revenue [9] Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Finance allocated over 13.5 billion yuan for energy-saving and emission-reduction subsidies in 2025, indicating strong governmental support for the industry [9] - The report discusses the impact of price reforms on the water industry, which is expected to enhance profitability and stabilize cash flows [14] Market Opportunities - The report identifies potential growth areas in the recycling of lithium batteries, with stable metal prices and a slight decline in profitability, suggesting a need for industry consolidation and improvement in profit margins [38][39] - The solid waste sector is expected to benefit from new business models, including waste-to-energy and data center collaborations, which could significantly enhance ROE [10]