预期与现实博弈强化，重视底部积极信号

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights three positive signals for the steel industry: 1) Steel prices and inventory have dropped to low levels, leading to a market sentiment of "hope for price increases"; 2) Expectations of production cuts are strengthening, which is driving profits in the futures market and supporting steel stock prices; 3) Improved expectations in the real estate sector may benefit the entire industry chain [2][6][12] Summary by Sections Market Trends - Since April, steel prices and stocks have been in a downward trend due to trade shocks. However, recent easing of trade conflicts has led to a rebound in steel stocks [2][6] - The apparent consumption of steel has decreased by 2.82% week-on-week and 4.02% year-on-year, indicating a seasonal decline in demand [4] Production and Inventory - Daily average pig iron production has risen to 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 4.23 thousand tons per day compared to the previous week [5] - National total inventory has decreased by 3.25% week-on-week, with long product inventory down 4.73% year-on-year [5] Price Movements - Shanghai rebar prices have increased to 3,200 CNY per ton, up 70 CNY from the previous week, while hot-rolled prices have risen to 3,230 CNY per ton, up 20 CNY [5] - The report notes that the market sentiment is shifting towards optimism as steel prices stabilize and inventory levels decrease [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on undervalued quality companies in the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies with strong performance potential like Hualing Steel and New Steel [27]