国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide specific industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The driving force for an uptrend is questionable, and it is currently regarded as range - bound [2][4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market have eased, leading to a decline in Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures [2][14]. - Soybean: Affected by the fluctuations in the soybean meal spot market, it followed the downward trend [2][14]. - Corn: The trend is slightly bullish with oscillations [2][17]. - Sugar: It is in a range - bound consolidation [2][22]. - Cotton: Demand will continue to limit the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures [2][26]. - Eggs: The spot market is weakly oscillating [2][31]. - Hogs: A phase of inventory reduction may commence [2][33]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases by oil mills [2][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,376 yuan/ton with a 1.77% increase, and the night - session was 8,310 yuan/ton with a 0.79% decrease. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,934 yuan/ton with a 1.12% increase, and the night - session was 7,868 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [5]. - Spot: The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,230 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan [5]. - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 854 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 486 yuan/ton [5]. - Macro and Industry News - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 14.75% (AmSpec), 13.8% (ITS), and 3.6% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [6][8][9]. - The Indian vegetable oil industry urged the government to adjust import tariffs to support domestic refining capacity [9]. - According to the CFTC report, as of April 22, long positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed increased, while short positions in CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, and ICE rapeseed also changed [10]. - Trend Intensity: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of - 1 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: DCE soybean 2507 closed at 4,237 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 1.42% decrease, and DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 3,031 yuan/ton with a 0.92% decrease [14]. - Spot: The price of 43% soybean meal in Shandong was 3,750 - 3,850 yuan/ton, down 50 or 20 yuan [14]. - Macro and Industry News - On April 25, CBOT soybean futures mostly fell as China denied tariff negotiations [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of - 1 [16]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: C2505 closed at 2,292 yuan/ton during the day - session with a 0.39% increase, and C2507 closed at 2,336 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase [18]. - Spot: The price of Jinzhou's flat - price corn was 2,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Guangdong Shekou's corn was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [18]. - Macro and Industry News - Corn prices in northern ports and various regions showed an upward trend [19]. - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 1 [20]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The main futures price was 5,974 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [22]. - Spot: The mainstream spot price was 6,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [22]. - Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information indicated drought in Guangxi, low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in Brazil's Q1 [22]. - CAOC estimated that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 1,100 million tons, consumption 1,580 million tons, and imports 500 million tons [23]. - ISO estimated a global sugar supply shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season [23]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: CF2509 closed at 12,990 yuan/ton during the day - session with no change, and CY2507 closed at 18,935 yuan/ton with a 0.21% decrease [26]. - Spot: The price of 3128B cotton index was 14,224 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [26]. - Macro and Industry News - The domestic cotton spot market was quiet, and the cotton textile industry faced challenges such as insufficient orders and reduced procurement [27]. - ICE cotton closed at 68.7 cents/pound on Friday, affected by poor export data and favorable weather [28]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Egg 2505 closed at 3,164 yuan/500 kg with a 1.54% increase, and Egg 2509 closed at 3,818 yuan/500 kg with a 0.03% decrease [31]. - Spot: The price of eggs in Liaoning was 3.35 yuan/jin, unchanged [31]. - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [31]. Hogs - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: Henan's spot price was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of hog 2505 was 14,115 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [35]. - Spot: The prices of hogs in Sichuan and Guangdong also decreased [35]. - Market Logic - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, second - fattening started, but recently, the sentiment has cooled, and a phase of inventory reduction may begin. The support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [37]. - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [36]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking - Futures: PK505 closed at 8,046 yuan/ton with a 1.52% decrease, and PK510 closed at 8,270 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [38]. - Spot: The prices of peanuts in various regions were relatively stable [38][39]. - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [40].