对二甲苯：去库格局，短期偏强，中期趋势仍偏弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Adopt a strategy of going long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound is expected, but there is pressure in the medium - term. With low processing fees, overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. In May, it will continue to be in the de - stocking phase. In June, new devices are expected to be put into operation, and it is advisable to take long positions in the PX calendar spread when it is low [4]. - PTA: Short - term rebound is expected, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. After factory maintenance, PTA spot supply and demand are tight, and the basis and calendar spread have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the high basis and calendar spread, and it is advisable to gradually take profits before the holiday [4]. - MEG: Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the high calendar spread. With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic supply will be sufficient, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Changes: On April 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, PF, and SC prices increased by 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.9% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.5% [1]. - Calendar Spread Changes: The daily changes in the calendar spreads of PX (5 - 9), PTA (5 - 9), MEG (5 - 9), PF(5 - 6), and PX - EB05 on April 25, 2025, were 60, 48, 6, 2, and 176 respectively [1]. - Inter - variety Spread Changes: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA05 - 0.65PX05, PTA05 - MEG05, PTA05 - PF05, PF05 processing margin, and PTA05 - LU05 on April 25, 2025, were - 3, 91, 58, - 42, and - 5 respectively [1]. - Basis and Spread Changes: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and the PX - naphtha spread on April 25, 2025, were - 0, 68, - 6, - 28, and 8 respectively [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Changes: On April 25, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 10,072 compared with the previous day, and the short - fiber warehouse receipts decreased by 86 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - Contract Pre - collection: The May PX contract pre - collection of a major domestic supplier is 6600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis, and the PTA contract pre - collection is 4600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis [3]. - Device Maintenance: A 225 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has stopped as planned, with an expected maintenance period of about 6 weeks. A 30 - million - ton IPA device in East China has stopped for maintenance, with an expected duration of about 1 month [3]. - Market Transactions: On April 27, PTA futures were closed. Driven by polyester sales, the PTA spot negotiation atmosphere was fair. The May basis jumped, and some suppliers stopped offering. MEG futures were also closed, and market negotiation was scarce. The average sales rate of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 70%, and the average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 70% [3][4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - PX: Overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. Domestic devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX have restarted, and some domestic devices have maintenance plans. In May, it will be in the de - stocking phase, and new devices are expected to be put into operation in June [4]. - PTA: Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. Factory maintenance is concentrated, and PTA spot supply and demand are tight. The basis and calendar spread have risen significantly, but it is not recommended to chase the high [4]. - MEG: With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic device operating rates may rise, and domestic supply will be sufficient. Import volume is high from April to May, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5].