合成橡胶：短期有支撑，但驱动有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals currently provide neutral support for synthetic rubber. Although there is no significant upward driver, due to the relatively low valuation after a sharp decline, the downside support has increased, and it will mainly move in a range in the short - term. Future trends depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber (BR) main contract, the daily closing price was 11,335 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 182,590 lots, an increase from 150,950 lots the day before; the open interest was 42,499 lots, up 769 lots; and the trading volume was 1.035589 billion yuan, an increase of 193.017 million yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract was 365 yuan, the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 (private) was 65 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The prices of North China, East China, and South China BR (private) remained unchanged at 11,450 yuan, 11,550 yuan, and 11,650 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) remained at 11,700 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) models 1502 and 1712 remained at 12,000 yuan and 11,000 yuan respectively [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 300 yuan and 200 yuan respectively, reaching 9,250 yuan and 9,450 yuan [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 72.2629%, up 0.87 percentage points; the theoretical full cost was 11,873 yuan/ton, up 309 yuan; the profit was - 173 yuan/ton, down 309 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry News 3.2.1 Butadiene Market - The price of Asian butadiene rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene fundamentals improved, with support at around 8,800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of the butadiene industry remained high, but the expectation of increased maintenance volume rose due to the weakening of ethylene cracking profits. Short - term import arrivals were limited. Demand from butadiene rubber increased, and the rigid demand from SBR, ABS, and SBS remained. Inventories at production enterprises and ports decreased, and the short - term port inventory was expected to show a de - stocking pattern, strengthening price support [1][4]. 3.2.2 Butadiene Rubber Market - On the supply side, as the cost decreased and processing profit increased, the operating rate was expected to rise. On the demand side, the apparent demand increased significantly, and substitution demand supported the total demand. The inventory was at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the fundamentals were neutral, providing support for the price after the previous sharp decline [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].