铅：补库边际走弱，价格承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The replenishment of lead inventory is weakening marginally, and prices are under pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,945 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day, while the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,945 dollars/ton, down 0.66% [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 37,979 lots, a decrease of 1,758 lots, and the open interest was 38,733 lots, a decrease of 921 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 2,178 lots, an increase of 48 lots, and the open interest was 147,461 lots, a decrease of 1,066 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME CASH - 3M premium was -17.91 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.28 dollars/ton [1]. - Import and Export Profits and Losses: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -522.36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74.01 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive contract of Shanghai lead was -513.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.47 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 37,971 tons, a decrease of 355 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 274,075 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 157,450 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1]. - Recycled Lead: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of recycled refined lead was 16,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -563 yuan/ton, an increase of 102 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 News - The Politburo meeting proposed to coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, and introduce incremental reserve policies in a timely manner according to the situation. Minsheng Securities believes that the April Politburo meeting clearly signaled that "employment is the bottom line" [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is -1, indicating a bearish outlook. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2].