锌：强现实弱预期，震荡调整

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - Report title: Zinc: Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, Oscillating Adjustment [1] - Date: April 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Data - Prices and Volume: - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,750 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,645.5 dollars/ton, down 2.20% [2]. - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 203,216 lots, an increase of 22,864 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 5,473 lots, an increase of 471 lots [2]. - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 122,427 lots, a decrease of 2,657 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 205,242 lots, an increase of 1,055 lots [2]. - Premiums and Discounts: - The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 175 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -34.73 dollars/ton, down 1.3 dollars/ton [2]. - The spot premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was 430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spot premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was 255 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -160.33 yuan/ton, down 53.36 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between ZN00 and ZN01 was 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc continuous - three contract was -759.37 yuan/ton, up 6.88 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: - The futures inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 3,185 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 180,050 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons [2]. - The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 29,575 tons, a decrease of 2,125 tons [2]. - Related Product Prices: - The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 29,575 yuan/ton, down 2,125 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. 3. News and Forecast - Macro News: The Politburo meeting emphasized coordinating domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles and releasing incremental reserve policies as needed. The signal of "employment is the bottom line" was released [3]. - Company News: On April 25, 2025, Hindustan Zinc, the world's third - largest zinc producer, reported a jump in fourth - quarter profits due to increased production and rising zinc prices. The domestic zinc price in the March quarter rose about 17.5% due to increased demand from the Indian construction and manufacturing industries. The company expects domestic zinc demand to reach 926,000 tons in the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, and its metal production in the March quarter reached a record high of 310,000 tons [3]. - Price Forecast: Despite the expected supply surplus, zinc and lead prices are expected to remain resilient [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3][4]