生猪：阶段性去库或开启

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] - Title: "Pigs: Potential for Phased De - stocking" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the spot price stopped falling and second - round fattening started. State reserve purchases will support the downstream. Group farms are actively selling piglets and have no incentive to actively sell fattened pigs. The spot price in April still has support. In the previous week, the near - month contracts were trading based on the logic of closing the basis. However, the enthusiasm for high - price second - round fattening has cooled, the price spread between fat and lean pigs is inverted in both the north and the south, group farms are selling fewer piglets, the pen pressure has increased slightly, and phased de - stocking may start. The sentiment of near - month contracts has weakened. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2505 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Fundamental Data Spot Prices - Henan spot price: 14,800 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 14,400 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 120 yuan/ton [3] - Guangdong spot price: 15,640 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3] Futures Prices - LH2505: 14,115 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] - LH2507: 13,540 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton [3] - LH2509: 14,150 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - LH2505: Trading volume 1,815 lots, a decrease of 1,466 lots from the previous day; Open interest 4,197 lots, a decrease of 767 lots from the previous day [3] - LH2507: Trading volume 5,490 lots, a decrease of 8,003 lots from the previous day; Open interest 33,362 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [3] - LH2509: Trading volume 27,235 lots, a decrease of 45,091 lots from the previous day; Open interest 72,298 lots, a decrease of 5,753 lots from the previous day [3] Price Spreads - LH2505 basis: 685 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 190 yuan/ton [3] - LH2507 basis: 1,260 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 195 yuan/ton [3] - LH2509 basis: 650 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 165 yuan/ton [3] - LH5 - 7 spread: 575 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3] - LH7 - 9 spread: - 610 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]