Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, rubber prices will continue to face pressure due to weak macro - sentiment affecting demand expectations and a still - weak fundamental situation. However, the downside space is limited, and the market is expected to remain volatile before the holiday. Key factors to monitor include the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import conditions, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,420 to 14,975 yuan/ton, showing a low - level narrow - range oscillation and a slight overall increase. As of April 25, 2025, it closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 130 points or 0.89% for the week [6][14]. - Spot Price: As of April 25, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai No. 3 smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,200 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous week [19][22]. - Basis and Spread: The basis between the Shanghai Yunnan State - owned whole latex (SCRWF) spot price and the main natural rubber futures contract price slightly expanded. As of April 25, 2025, the basis was - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic natural rubber price rose slightly, while the foreign price fell slightly [26][29]. Important Market Information - US Economic and Policy News: Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest - rate policy but had no plan to fire Powell. The market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, and US stock index futures rose while COMEX gold futures fell. Trump's economic support rate hit a new low, and the Fed's "Beige Book" showed little change in economic activity with widespread trade policy uncertainty. Trump may exempt some tariffs on the auto and steel industries, and US tariff revenue in April soared by over 60% to at least 15 billion US dollars [32][33]. - US Economic Data: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 222,000, in line with expectations. The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 52.2, a new low since July 2022, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a new high since January 1980 [33]. - Global Economic Outlook: The IMF significantly downgraded the global economic growth rate, predicting that the global economic growth rate will drop to 2.8% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, and also lowered the US economic growth forecast [33]. - Chinese Economic News: China's macro - policies are coordinated, and the economy shows a positive trend. The government will implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies. Regarding the US - China trade issue, China is firm in its stance. From January to March, the operating income of state - owned enterprises was flat year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 1.7%. In the first quarter, the total transaction volume of first - and second - hand housing increased by 10% year - on - year, with second - hand housing up 34.7%. From January to April, the average monthly premium rate of land auctions in 22 key cities was around 20% [35]. - Automobile and Rubber - related Data: In March, China's automobile production and sales were good, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased slightly year - on - year [8][37][38]. Supply - side Situation - Natural Rubber Production in Main Producing Countries: As of February 28, 2025, the production in Malaysia increased slightly, Indonesia decreased slightly, Vietnam decreased slightly, India decreased significantly, and Thailand decreased significantly. China's main producing areas were in the non - tapping period. The total production of main natural rubber producing countries in February 2025 was 694,800 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44]. - Synthetic Rubber Production in China: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [49][53]. - Import of New Pneumatic Rubber Tires in China: As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [56]. Demand - side Situation - Automobile Tire Enterprise Operating Rates: As of April 24, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.11%, down 0.33% from the previous week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 62.46%, down 2.97% [59]. - Automobile Production and Sales in China: As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; monthly sales were 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [63][66][71]. - Tire Production and Export in China: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly production of Chinese tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [74][80]. Inventory - side Situation - Natural Rubber Futures Inventory: As of April 25, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,520 tons, down 630 tons from the previous week. - Domestic Natural Rubber Inventory: As of April 20, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.369 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 1%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 830,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 538,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. The total inventory in Qingdao was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% from the previous period, with the bonded area inventory down 1.22% and the general trade inventory down 1.06% [87]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. The supply increase expectation is strong, and the support from the supply side is weakening. In March, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 17% year - on - year [88]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, the overall shipment of tire enterprises was weak, and the finished - product inventory continued to accumulate. In March 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks decreased slightly year - on - year but increased significantly month - on - month. In the first quarter, China's rubber tire exports increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The "trade - in" policy is stimulating terminal consumption [88]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, China's social inventory of natural rubber declined slightly but remained at a high level, and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly with a slightly faster destocking speed [88]. Operation Strategy It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will remain volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [9][90].
胶价持续承压运行，节前或将维持震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-04-28 02:21