短期利空逐渐消化，市场情绪有所改善，减产预期增强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term negative factors have been gradually digested, market sentiment has improved, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. Recently, steel prices have shown signs of stabilizing and fluctuating. The rb2510 contract should be treated as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and attention should be paid to whether it can fill the gap in early April [2][5][32][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of April 27, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [9] Important Market Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized on April 25 to implement more proactive macro - policies, use fiscal and monetary policies, and improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and the economy. PBoC Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China's Q1 GDP grew 5.4% year - on - year, with a stable financial system and resilient financial markets [13] Supply - side Situation - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.33%, up 0.77% month - on - month and 4.60% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, up 1.45% month - on - month and 6.07% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, up 2.60% month - on - month and 6.93% year - on - year; the daily average pig iron output was 244.35 million tons, up 4.23 million tons month - on - month and 15.63 million tons year - on - year [5][30] Demand - side Situation - As of March 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 53.4, up 0.7% month - on - month; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 52.6, up 3.3% month - on - month [16] Inventory - side Situation - Last week, the rebar mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week [32] Fundamental Analysis - Vale's CFO expects iron ore prices to stabilize at $100/ton. The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 9 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi, it was 15 yuan/ton. China Iron and Steel Association's Luo Tiejun said production cuts are a consensus. The total inventory of imported iron ore of national steel mills was 9.07303 billion tons, up 20.11 million tons week - on - week; the daily consumption of imported ore was 301.39 million tons, up 3.29 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.1 days, down 0.27 days week - on - week. On April 25, mainstream coking enterprises proposed a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton [30][31] 后市展望 - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar changed from increasing to decreasing, mill inventory and output decreased for the second consecutive week, and social inventory decreased for the seventh consecutive week. Market sentiment improved significantly, the expectation of steel mill production cuts increased, and steel prices showed signs of stabilizing and fluctuating [32] Operation Strategy - Treat the rb2510 contract as a short - term stable, fluctuating rebound, and pay attention to whether it can fill the gap in early April [33]