长江期货纸浆月报：宏观风险压制浆价-20250428

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pulp market is currently facing challenges with high port inventories, weak downstream demand, and a shift from peak to off - peak season. Although the domestic consumption is currently poor, due to the large basis, the pulp price is expected to show a low - level oscillating trend [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾：4月纸浆震荡走弱 - In April, the pulp price continued the downward trend from March, and the basis expanded to 995 yuan/ton due to the relatively smaller decline in spot prices [8]. 3.2供应端分析：去库进程中断 - The domestic pulp spot price significantly declined in April. The Shandong Yinxing spot price dropped by 100 yuan compared to the end of March, and the Shandong Yingwu price dropped by 260 yuan. The adjustment of broad - leaf pulp was more obvious, and the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp widened to 1950 yuan [12]. - The import quotation of pulp was adjusted. The Arauco Company in Chile kept the price of coniferous pulp Yinxing at 825 US dollars/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 630 US dollars/ton [13]. - In March 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The import of bleached coniferous pulp in March was 798,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [15]. - The domestic pulp inventory decreased rapidly in the futures market, with a total inventory of 323,937 tons, a decrease of 51,286 tons from the previous month. As of April 18, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 2.069 million tons, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous period [17]. - In March 2025, the inventory of bleached coniferous pulp in Europe was 245,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 24,700 tons. The inventory days were 27 days, the same as the previous month and an increase of 3 days year - on - year [21]. 3.3需求端分析：需求维持弱势 - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 5.9%, a significant increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The nominal growth rate of social consumer goods retail in the first quarter was 5.0%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the fourth quarter of last year. In March, China's export amount was 313.91 billion yuan, higher than the average of the past five years and a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [27]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of machine - made paper and cardboard was 38.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output in March was 14.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the industry's profit continued to decline and recently fell into losses [28]. - The previous price increase of downstream paper products has ended. Currently, due to weak consumption, price increases are difficult, and there may be pressure in the later stage. This week, the price of offset paper dropped by 48 yuan/ton, the price of coated paper dropped by 92 yuan/ton, and the price of white cardboard dropped by 31 yuan/ton [32]. 3.4逻辑与展望：震荡筑底 - The inventory reduction was not smooth in March, and the port inventory is still at a historical high of over 2 million tons. Downstream demand has shifted from peak to off - peak season in April, with no bright spots in paper mill operations. Since February this year, the price difference between coniferous pulp brands and between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp has been widening. Weak demand and expectations have led to a downward trend in pulp prices, but the high basis provides some support [36].