铜：基本面现实偏强，支撑价格

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are currently strong, providing support for its price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 77,440 with a daily increase of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 77,470 with a night - session increase of 0.04%. The LME copper 3M electronic trading price was 9,360, down 1.00% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the SHFE copper main contract was 110,001, a decrease of 1,571 from the previous day, and the open interest was 165,933, a decrease of 203. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic trading was 5,574, an increase of 357, and the open interest was 286,000, an increase of 1,748 [2]. - Futures Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 41,588, a decrease of 1,376, and the LME copper inventory was 203,450, an increase of 25. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 37.97%, an increase of 0.59% [2]. - Price Spreads: The LME copper cash - to - 3M spread decreased by 4.02 to 2.41. The bonded - zone warehouse - receipt premium increased by 2 to 90, and the bonded - zone bill - of - lading premium increased by 7 to 110. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 100 to 72,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 5 to 180, and the near - month to next - near - month futures spread increased by 20 to 210 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting proposed to coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles and timely introduce incremental reserve policies according to the situation. Trump said 200 agreements were negotiated, the US - Japan agreement was "very close", and it was unlikely that tariffs would be suspended for another 90 days [2]. - Industry News: From January to March this year, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 2.9% year - on - year to 123,789 tons. In March, the production was 42,119 tons, higher than 39,001 tons in February. In March 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 189,722.465 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.01%. Peru's Antamina Mining Company shut down its mine due to a safety accident. From January to March 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 21356.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.5%; the operating cost was 20156.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.7%; and the total profit was 657.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 33.6% [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].