Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - The soybean meal may fluctuate in the short - term [1] - The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate within a range, and investors are advised to operate cautiously as the May Day holiday approaches [1] - The copper price has rebounded to a key price range. Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the monthly K - line pattern [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling can be considered on rallies [3][4] - After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position approach can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - The coking coal and coke will have a weak rebound at low levels with limited upside space [7] - The iron ore 2505 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [8] - The WTI crude oil will see its price center shift down in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9] - For Shanghai rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10] - The PVC futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [11] - The soda ash futures market will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - Spot Information: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market Analysis: It is in the period of US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant. Mid - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - Spot Information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Rizhao are 3,800 yuan/ton (- 150), 4,050 yuan/ton (- 250), and 3,830 yuan/ton (- 170) respectively [1] - Market Analysis: Sino - US trade tariff issues remain unresolved. US soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. Brazilian soybeans are arriving in China, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to become looser. The inventory has reached a low point due to the mismatch between pre - May Day stocking and oil refinery operations [1] Corn - Spot Information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,128 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,333 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,200 - 2,230 yuan/ton and 2,200 - 2,220 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Market Analysis: The impact of the US tariff event on the outer market has weakened. The USDA report has lowered US corn production and ending stocks. The US dollar index has declined, supporting the US corn futures. In the domestic market, farmers' grain sales are nearly 90% completed, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to slow pig production capacity reduction, feed inventory backlog, and the supply pressure of new wheat [1] Copper - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,0360 - 78,230 yuan, up 30 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.52, down 7.81 [1] - Market Analysis: The global market is still in the stage of "irrational" tariff shock, and the high - volatility window of overseas capital markets has not ended. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are continuously strengthening market expectations. The raw material shock is intensifying, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [2] Lithium Carbonate - Spot Information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 69,600 yuan/ton and 68,100 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Market Analysis: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is continuously decreasing. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt - lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not enough to drive the price up. The inventory has been accumulating [3] Steel - Spot Information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [5] - Market Analysis: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving. The cost of steel is dynamically changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [5] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot Information: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6] - Market Analysis: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak as steel mills may reduce production, the inventory of independent coking enterprises is slightly increasing, and the average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [7] Iron Ore - Spot Information: The Platts iron ore index is 100.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 767 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8] - Market Analysis: The supply is mixed with Australian shipments decreasing and Brazilian shipments increasing. The port inventory has decreased. The domestic demand has increased, but steel mills' procurement is cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the US tariff policy restricts the upward space of iron ore prices [8] Crude Oil - Market Analysis: The market sentiment has improved, and the US inventory has decreased. OPEC + has announced compensation production cuts. However, the US "reciprocal tariff" still impacts the market. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift down [9] Rubber - Market Analysis: The US "reciprocal tariff" has affected China's tire and automobile exports. The domestic rubber supply is increasing as the domestic production area starts harvesting, and the global supply and demand are both loose [10] PVC - Spot Information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the price difference is 270 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [11] - Market Analysis: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the social inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [11] Soda Ash - Spot Information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,418.44 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1,450 yuan/ton, 1,500 yuan/ton, and 1,400 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged [12] - Market Analysis: The operating rate of soda ash production is relatively stable, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is average, and the market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental drive is weak. The futures price will likely have a wide - range oscillation in the short - term [12]
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250428
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-04-28 02:39