棕榈油：上涨驱动存疑，暂震荡对待，豆油：现货情绪好转，高位或有回调

Report Title - Palm Oil: Doubts about the upward driving force, temporarily treat it as volatile; Soybean Oil: Spot sentiment improves, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward driving force of palm oil is doubtful, and it is temporarily treated as volatile; the spot sentiment of soybean oil has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase from the same period last month [3] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 950,957 tons, a 13.8% increase from the same period last month [5] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from the same period last month [6] - The Indian vegetable oil industry has urged the government to widen the import tariff gap between crude and refined vegetable oils to curb the import of processed oils and support domestic refining capacity [6] - As of the week ending April 22, 2025, in the CFTC持仓 report, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 8,711 to 191,535, and short positions increased by 3,188 to 135,851; CBOT soybean oil long positions increased by 9,688 to 133,444, and short positions increased by 4,892 to 73,053; CBOT soybean meal long positions increased by 813 to 114,769, and short positions increased by 7,653 to 145,745; ICE rapeseed long positions increased by 25,613 to 94,577, and short positions decreased by 1,369 to 46,743 [7] - In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 80% of the soybean - planted area has been harvested due to sunny and dry weather [7] - As of April 24, 2025, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina's 2024/25 season was 13%, behind last year's 23% [7] - Strategic Grains maintained its 2025/26 EU rapeseed production forecast for the third consecutive month at 1.9 billion tons, a 13% increase from 2024/25; slightly lowered the EU's next - year sunflower seed production forecast to 1.05 billion tons from last month's 1.06 billion tons, but still a 26% increase from 2024/25; and lowered the 2025/26 EU soybean production forecast from 320 million tons last month to 310 million tons, a 3% increase from this year [8] - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 7.5224 million tons, a 72.3% increase from the same period last year. As of April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2009 million tons [9] Fundamental Tracking Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,376 yuan/ton | 1.77% | 8,310 yuan/ton | -0.79% - -0.83% | 963,432 lots | 273,901 lots | 414,485 lots | 22,167 lots | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 7,934 yuan/ton | 1.12% | 7,868 yuan/ton | | 536,090 lots | 196,448 lots | 646,754 lots | 47,749 lots | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,506 yuan/ton | 1.24% | 9,471 yuan/ton | -0.37% | 588,867 lots | 164,060 lots | 351,144 lots | 24,179 lots | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,058 ringgit/ton | 0.55% | | | | | | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 49.70 cents/lb | -0.74% | | | | | | | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,230 yuan/ton | 200 yuan/ton | | Grade 1 Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,420 yuan/ton | 120 yuan/ton | | Grade 4 Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,500 yuan/ton | 150 yuan/ton | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB Off - shore Price (Continuous Contract) | 1,005 US dollars/ton | 0 US dollars/ton | [2] Basis | Variety | Spot Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 854 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 486 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | -6 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Variety | Spread | | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,130 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -442 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 338 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 60 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | -45 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: -1; Soybean oil trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10]