宝城期货煤焦早报-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both coking coal (JM2509) and coke (J2509) are mainly "oscillation". Coking coal has a short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, with an overall "oscillation" approach. Coke also has short - term, medium - term "oscillation" and intraday "oscillation - weak" view, following an "oscillation" approach [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - Core Logic: In March and April, there were no major production accidents in Shanxi, and the coal mine safety supervision environment was relatively stable with high production levels. In March, Shanxi's raw coal production increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and in April, it continued to run at a high level with expected year - on - year positive growth. Also, Mongolia coal imports in April improved compared to March. The supply of coking coal remains loose with a bearish fundamental. The latest quotation of Mongolia coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a futures warehouse receipt cost of about 1008 yuan/ton. Due to strong macro disturbances and increased long - short game, the main contract of coking coal maintains low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to domestic demand - boosting policies [5]. Coke - Core Logic: This week, coke shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with a more obvious increase on the demand side. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the main futures contract maintains low - level oscillation. However, there are strong macro disturbances. There are repeated Sino - US trade frictions in April with high uncertainty, and China's domestic demand - boosting policies are expected. The Politburo meeting on April 25 proposed to implement more proactive macro policies. In the long - run, the cost drag from loose coking coal supply and concerns about terminal demand limit the rebound space of coke futures. But short - term macro disturbances and marginal improvement in coke's own fundamentals support the price. The main coke contract is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to domestic policy [6].