宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of beans and related oil products are showing a weakening trend, with an overall view of "oscillating weakly" for most products in the short - term and mid - term, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - Core Logic: As the expected Sino - US trade tensions ease, the risk premium of soybean futures prices faces the risk of retracement. Spot prices in North China and Northeast China have dropped significantly, and the futures market is adjusting the supply shortage expectation. The market expects supply to recover after May Day, and the pre - purchase by oil mills may gradually resolve the supply shortage. Downstream备货 mentality has changed, and subsequent stocking has become more cautious after a short - term concentrated stocking. Short - term soybean futures prices have retraced part of the risk premium and are obviously weak [5]. Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - Core Logic: With the significant decline in the price of raw soybeans, soybean oil futures prices have weakened. Palm oil lacks relevant themes and is a follower in the oil and fat sector. The supply - demand increase pattern in Southeast Asia cannot drive prices, and the increase in domestic ship purchases will replenish domestic inventories. Overall, palm oil is oscillating weakly in the short - term [7]. Other Related Varieties - Soybean Oil (2509): The influencing factors include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel stocking demand [6]. - Palm (2509): Influenced by Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [6].