金信期货日刊-20250428

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" - Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Focus: Analysis of the sharp decline in hog futures prices and technical analysis of various futures I. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report II. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in hog futures prices on April 24, 2025, was mainly caused by supply, demand, and market sentiment factors. Future hog supplies are expected to be sufficient, demand is weak, and previous bullish factors have been realized, leading to concerns about supply pressure and a subsequent price slump [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is crucial. Above this point, there is still upward momentum; below it indicates weakness [7] - Gold is facing a short - term technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains. However, the long - term upward logic remains intact. The low point of the previous day is a key point [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill复产 cycle, but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion and other factors. The market is in a short - term wide - range shock [14] - Glass demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The short - term trend is bearish [17] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean (bean one) prices is limited [20] III. Summary by Category 1. Hog Futures - Supply Side: Official data shows that the number of breeding sows increased until the end of December last year, indicating an upward trend in theoretical hog slaughter until the end of October this year. The number of newborn piglets in March this year was close to the high level in 2023, putting pressure on the September contract. The weight gain and supply shift caused by hog backlogging and secondary fattening from February to April will increase future supply pressure [3] - Demand Side: Despite the approaching May Day holiday, high hog prices have reduced consumer purchasing willingness, and some consumers have chosen alternative meats. Current consumption is in a off - season, and daily pork demand is stable, unable to drive up prices [4] - Market Sentiment: Previous bullish factors for hog futures prices have been realized, and concerns about supply pressure in the production - increasing cycle have intensified, leading to the price slump [4] 2. Stock Index Futures - Policy side: The Ministry has denied Sino - US tariff negotiation consultations. Technically, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is important [7] - Market performance: The three major indexes showed continued divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 closing down [8] 3. Gold Futures - Short - term: Risk - aversion sentiment has ebbed, and there are many profit - taking positions. It is facing a technical correction. - Long - term: The long - term upward logic remains intact due to the damaged US dollar credit. The low point of the previous day is a key point for judging the short - term trend [11] 4. Iron Ore Futures - Short - term: Steel mills are in the复产 cycle, and short - term replenishment demand may support prices. - Long - term: Constrained by capacity expansion. Trade frictions may indirectly affect exports and steel demand, and the lack of substantial positive news from the Politburo meeting has weakened market sentiment. The short - term is in a wide - range shock [14] 5. Glass Futures - Demand: Demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation [17][18] - Technical: The price closed down and broke the low again, with a short - term bearish trend [17] 6. Bean One Futures - Supply: The Brazilian new - season soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is certain. Future exports will set a record, so domestic supply is not tight, and the upward space for bean one prices is limited [20]