甲醇周报：基本面边际走弱，甲醇反弹空间或许有限-20250428

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol this week lack substantial positive factors, and the supply may not continue to shrink while the demand may decline. The port inventory is expected to rise. Although the current downward pressure on methanol is not significant, the fundamentals cannot provide continuous support, so the rebound space of methanol may be limited. The methanol futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not change substantially, and the methanol futures fluctuated throughout the week. As of Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol closed at 2,305 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous week [12]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market fluctuated last week. The pre - holiday stocking demand of inland downstream supported the market, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. The coastal market had cargo backflow and low foreign vessel arrivals, resulting in significant inventory reduction. As of April 24, the spot prices in different regions had different changes, with some rising and some falling [12]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production decreased to 1,898,985 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60%. The number of maintenance and production cuts was more than that of restarts, resulting in a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of April 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of methanol were different. The olefin industry's capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the dimethyl ether's increased, the glacial acetic acid's increased slightly, the chloride's decreased, and the formaldehyde's decreased [18][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of April 23, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises decreased slightly to 309,800 tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons or 0.82% from the previous period, and the order backlog increased to 302,700 tons, an increase of 28,300 tons or 10.30% [23]. - As of April 23, 2025, China's methanol port sample inventory decreased significantly to 463,200 tons, a decrease of 122,400 tons or 20.90% from the previous period [27]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased. The profits of different production methods in different regions all showed varying degrees of increase [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, it is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0331 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 91.07% [34]. 3.2 Demand - The olefin industry's capacity utilization rate will continue to decline, the dimethyl ether's may increase slightly, the acetic acid's is expected to increase, the formaldehyde's will have limited adjustment, and the chloride's is expected to increase [36]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 303,300 tons, slightly decreasing from last week. The port inventory may increase due to the expected increase in foreign vessel arrivals [37]. - Overall, the fundamentals of methanol this week may weaken marginally, but the downward pressure is not significant. The macro - level impact on methanol prices has decreased, and the rebound space of methanol may be limited [9][38].