螺纹钢：限产预期升温，短线反弹，热轧卷板：限产预期升温，短线反弹

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are expected to have a short-term rebound due to the increasing expectation of production restrictions [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,101 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.48%); HC2510 was 3,204 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.31%). The trading volume of RB2510 was 1,679,713 lots, with a position of 1,986,742 lots and an increase of 6,545 lots; HC2510 had a trading volume of 613,482 lots, a position of 1,407,096 lots, and an increase of 1,490 lots [2] - Spot Price: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 40, 60, 50, and 50 yuan/ton respectively; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 60, 70, 20, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Tangshan billet price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 3010 yuan/ton [2] - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 89 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2510 remained unchanged at 36 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2505 - RB2510 remained unchanged at -76; HC2505 - HC2510 increased by 7 to -14; HC2505 - RB2505 increased by 12 to 165; HC2510 - RB2510 increased by 5 to 103; the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 19 to -27 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Steel Production and Inventory Data (April 25): Rebar production decreased by 0.11 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 3.10 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 3.13 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 30.83 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 6.86 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 50.41 million tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 13.88 million tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 0.20 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties decreased by 22.39 million tons [3] - Industrial Enterprise Profit Data (January - March): The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 1,509.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. State - owned holding enterprises' profit was 559.95 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; joint - stock enterprises' profit was 1,110.15 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%; foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit was 388.35 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; private enterprises' profit was 370.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly strong trend [5]