碳酸锂周报：基本面预期边际走弱，锂价或有二次探底-20250428

Group 1: Report's Core View - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. In terms of supply, some lithium salt plants had regular production cuts in April, and the resumption of production in May will increase domestic lithium salt supply. Meanwhile, Chile's lithium salt exports to China increased significantly in March, and there is also an expectation of an increase in imported resources. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles under the Passenger Car Association's statistics has weakened, and the boost from the April auto show to consumption was slightly less than expected. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics remains at a low level, indicating a gap between actual consumption and enterprise expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. As the automotive consumption enters the seasonal off - season, the fundamentals are expected to weaken marginally. Technically, the lithium price initially bottomed out last period, but the subsequent correction was less than the previous high, and after the short - covering rebound, many long - positions also left, suggesting that trend - following long - positions are not firm. With the marginal weakening of the fundamentals, lithium prices may have a second bottoming [4]. Group 2: Market Data - Imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) decreased from $118/ton to $116/ton, a change of -$2.00 and -1.69% [5]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8.00 and -1.10% [5]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased from $730/ton to $722/ton, a change of -$8 and -1.10% [5]. - The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.82 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.22 million yuan and -3.13% [5]. - The spot price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 7.05 million yuan/ton to 0 million yuan/ton, a change of -7.05 million yuan and -100.00% [5]. - The main contract price of lithium carbonate decreased from 7.04 million yuan/ton to 6.84 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -2.90% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse) decreased from 6.93 million yuan/ton to 6.80 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.13 million yuan and -1.88% [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine) decreased from 7.42 million yuan/ton to 7.37 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.05 million yuan and -0.67% [5]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased from 96,705 tons to 95,843 tons, a change of -862 tons and -0.89% [5]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased from 3.32 million yuan/ton to 3.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.03 million yuan and -0.90% [5]. - The price of lithium cobalt oxide increased from 21.10 million yuan/ton to 21.30 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.20 million yuan and 0.95% [5]. - The price of ternary material (811) decreased from 14.95 million yuan/ton to 14.75 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.20 million yuan and -1.34% [5]. - The price of ternary material (622) decreased from 13.30 million yuan/ton to 13.15 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.15 million yuan and -1.13% [5]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of April 25, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 31,792 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 72,280 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 217,300 lots [7]. - As of April 25, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,305 tons, a decrease of 190 tons from the previous period. Domestic production remains at a relatively low level, but with the end of maintenance in some lithium salt plants in May, domestic supply may be marginally corrected. With the ramping - up of northern salt lake resources and limited demand growth, the new supply will be internally replaced, and the cost center of lithium salt is expected to move down [7]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Among them, 12,700 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%; 4,646 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. Chile's lithium carbonate exports in March were about 23,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 8%/37%. Among them, 16,600 tons were exported to China, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 3%/38%. In the future, the scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina is relatively stable, and the increase in domestic resources from Argentine salt lakes is limited in the short term. The main change in imports comes from Chile's shipments. The significant increase in Chile's lithium salt shipments to China in March may push up the domestic lithium salt supply scale in May [8]. - In March, about 534,500 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%. Among them, 307,700 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 32.6% and a year - on - year increase of 30.5%; 51,800 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month decrease of 65.3%; 58,400 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 39.9%; 85,100 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 82.8% [8]. - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of April 25, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,996 tons, with an operating rate of 59.27%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 38,378 tons, an increase of 60 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 14,600 tons, with an operating rate of 45.02%, a decrease of 0.77 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,775 tons, an increase of 20 tons from the previous period. During the reporting period, the cathode material prices changed little. Most downstream enterprises have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, and when the price broke through this time, downstream spot price - fixing during trading was more cautious. The spot market had only rigid - demand purchases, and the price stimulus to material manufacturers' purchases was less than before. Currently, some material manufacturers may start a second price - increase negotiation with battery manufacturers, but the price - increase results may still show quality differentiation [9][10]. - From April 1 - 20, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 478,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% compared with the same period in April last year and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate was 53.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.898 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33%. In early April, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down significantly, dragging down the annual consumption growth rate. Under the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers' statistics, the new energy sales - to - production ratio is at a low level, and the post - holiday rebound is less than in previous periods. The weak resilience of demand has led to a mismatch between vehicle manufacturers' production scheduling and sales expectations, and the inventory pressure of finished vehicles persists. Short - term consumption may depend on the effectiveness of the auto show in the second half of the month. Currently, China and the EU have started negotiations on electric vehicle prices, which will replace the tariff plan with a minimum pricing plan. However, regardless of the pricing result, the competitiveness of domestic brands in the European market will weaken marginally, and external demand for exports is not optimistic. Technologically, there have been many breakthroughs recently. CATL announced that it will launch a new sodium battery at the end of 2025. At the same time, Great Wall Motor and Guoxuan High - tech have both made progress in solid - state batteries [11]. - As of April 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 95,843 tons, a decrease of about - 862 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 32,560 tons, an increase of 2,860 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 63,283 tons, a decrease of 3,722 tons from the previous period. Overall, after excluding the change in exchange inventory, the market inventory is still decreasing, showing a divergence from the significant increase in factory inventory, indicating that after the second price breakdown, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and they mainly focus on digesting existing inventory [12]. This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook is marginally weakening, and lithium prices may experience a second bottoming. The supply in May will increase due to the resumption of production in some lithium salt plants and the expected increase in imports from Chile. On the demand side, the high - frequency sales growth rate of new energy vehicles has weakened, the boost from the auto show was less than expected, the sales - to - production ratio is low, and the consumption is entering the seasonal off - season. Technically, the lithium price's previous correction was less than the previous high, and long - positions left after the short - covering rebound. The increase in open interest slowed down while trading volume increased significantly [4][13]. Group 4: Industry News - The largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia obtained a mining license. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine in Keshiketeng Banner, Chifeng City, is the largest hard - rock lithium mine in Asia and the largest single - tin mine north of the Yangtze River. On April 21, the Ministry of Natural Resources officially approved and granted the mining license to Inner Mongolia Verasto Mining Co., Ltd., marking the implementation stage of lithium and tin resource development and utilization in Chifeng City. The Verasto lithium polymetallic mine mainly contains valuable metal elements such as lithium, tin, tungsten, and zinc, with characteristics of shallow burial, thick ore bodies, large resource reserves, and high grades. The total proven ore reserves are 55.27 million tons, including 41.98 million tons of Li2O (lithium oxide) ore, with a metal content of 576,000 tons and an average grade of 1.37% [14]. - CATL launched the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery. On April 21, CATL released the second - generation Shenxing ultra - fast charging battery, a lithium iron phosphate battery. According to CATL, the battery has a range of 800 kilometers, a peak charging rate close to 12C, and a peak charging power of more than 1.3 megawatts, enabling "5 - minute charging for a range of over 520 kilometers" [14]. - Hunan Yueneng plans to invest in a 20,000 - ton lithium battery recycling project. Recently, the official website of Xiangxiang City Government in Hunan Province released the environmental impact approval decision and publicity of the "Annual 20,000 - ton Waste Lithium - Ion Battery Disassembly and Recycling Project of Hunan Yueneng Circular Technology Co., Ltd." [14]. - The second - phase project of a 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate production base started. Recently, under the strategic background of deepening new energy industry cooperation between China and Indonesia, the second - phase project of the 120,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate cathode material production base of Longpan Technology's (603906) Indonesian lithium source was launched in Semarang, Indonesia [15].