多空博弈，氧化铝震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From April 17 to April 25, 2025, the price of the active alumina futures contract increased from 2828 yuan/ton to 2846 yuan/ton, a rise of 18 yuan/ton; the price of domestic alumina spot rose from 2888 yuan/ton to 2897 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased from 60 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton, a rise of 21 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Australian alumina remained unchanged at 347.5 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved from - 293.47 yuan/ton to - 285.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.7 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 294,269 tons to 274,723 tons, a decrease of 19,546 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory decreased from 8100 tons to 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions remained unchanged, while the CIF price of Guinean bauxite decreased from 88 US dollars/ton to 80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.99% last week, closing at 2846 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2897 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Affected by the cost - price inversion of alumina enterprises, the purchase price of domestic bauxite in some regions was slightly reduced again, and there may be further downward adjustments in the future. In 2025, China's total bauxite imports reached 47.089 million tons, and the total imports in March alone were 1.6466 million tons, breaking the previous monthly import record. On the supply side, there were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market last week, and overall, the operating production capacity increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24, China's built - in alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.52%. On the consumption side, some electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong was transferred to Yunnan, and production capacity in Guangxi and Guizhou was restored and newly commissioned. Overall, the theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly this week, and the demand for alumina increased. As of now, the theoretical operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.825 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from last week. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [4][5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, some previously overhauled and reduced - production alumina production capacity in the southwest and Guangxi regions resumed production, but there was also new production capacity undergoing overhauls. Overall, the current supply - side operating production capacity increased slightly compared to last week. On the consumption side, the weekly theoretical operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased, but most raw material purchases were based on long - term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light. On the cost side, the disturbance of imported ore did not have much impact on the supply. The profit pressure of alumina was transmitted upwards, and there was still downward pressure on ore prices. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12,958 tons to 275,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory was 7800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. Overall, the focus of alumina prices remains on the changes in supply - side production capacity. Currently, the supply side has both negative factors such as the upcoming commissioning of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled production capacity, and positive factors like some regional production capacity being in a loss - making state and potentially undergoing overhauls. Amid the stalemate between bulls and bears, alumina prices are expected to have support at the bottom and fluctuate within a range [7] 3.4 Industry News - According to Baichuan Yingfu, a 400,000 - ton production line of an alumina plant in Henan with a built - in production capacity of 1.4 million tons has reduced production, and the operating production capacity is 1 million tons, with the resumption time to be determined. On April 24, the Zhalute Banner Branch of the Tongliao Ecological Environment Bureau released an announcement on the second public notice of the environmental impact assessment of the Jintai and Tongliao Green Aluminum - based New Materials Source - Network - Load - Storage Energy Optimization Demonstration Project. The project is located in the Zhahao'er Industrial Park, Tongliao City, with an annual production capacity of 2 million tons of alumina. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Market Access Negative List (2025 Edition), stating that the addition of new electrolytic aluminum and alumina production capacity is strictly prohibited in key regions [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [10][14]