Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - Iron Ore: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - Ferroalloys: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - Copper: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - Tin: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - Nickel: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - Fuel Oil: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - Synthetic Rubber: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - Natural Rubber: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - PVC: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - Urea: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - PX: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - PTA: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - Ethylene Glycol: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - Short - Fiber: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - Bottle Chips: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - Soda Ash: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - Glass: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - Caustic Soda: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - Pulp: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - Cotton: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - Sugar: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - Apple: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - Pig: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - Egg: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - Corn and Corn Starch: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - Log: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].
西南期货早间评论-20250428
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-28 02:57