国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250428

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report offers short - term and medium - term outlooks for various commodities. For example, gold is expected to see a risk preference rebound, copper's price is supported by strong fundamentals, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are in a weak position due to downstream production cuts and falling spot prices respectively [2][12][32][33]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Risk preference rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. Its prices showed declines in the previous trading session, and ETF holdings slightly increased [2][6][9]. - Silver: Stabilizes and rebounds, with a trend strength of 0. There were drops in prices and a decrease in SLV ETF holdings [2][6][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Strong fundamentals support the price, with a trend strength of 0. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories, and some countries' production data showed growth [2][12][14]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina is expected to decline slightly. Ore prices are under downward pressure due to production cuts and other factors [2][15][17]. - Zinc: Strong current situation but weak expectations, with a trend strength of 0. There were price fluctuations, and a major producer's profit increased due to production and price rises [2][18][19]. - Lead: Price is under pressure as restocking weakens, with a trend strength of - 1. There were changes in prices, trading volumes, and inventories [2][21][22]. - Nickel: Upside and downside spaces converge, and the price may fluctuate narrowly, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesian production capacity is recovering, and resource tax policies are adjusted [2][24][26]. - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, with a trend strength of 0. Cost and negative feedback are in a game on the disk [2][25]. - Tin: Shows a slight repair, with a trend strength of 0. There were price increases in the spot market and changes in trading volumes and inventories [2][28][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts lead to a weak performance on the disk, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price drops and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Spot prices fall, and the disk is weak, with a trend strength of - 1. There were price declines and changes in inventories and production profits [32][33][35]. - Carbonate lithium: Weak demand and falling costs lead to a continued weak operation, with a trend strength of 0. There were price drops in the spot market and changes in contract prices and trading volumes [36][37][38]. - Iron ore: Expectations are volatile, and the price fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some macro - economic data were released [39][40]. - Rebar: The expectation of production restrictions rises, and there is a short - term rebound, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to rebar, with a trend strength of 1. There were price changes and some production and inventory data were updated [42][43][44]. - Ferrosilicon: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Silicomanganese: Oscillates at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry information was reported [47][50][51]. - Coke: Affected by production restriction news, it fluctuates widely, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Coking coal: Similar to coke, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some price and position information was provided [52][53][54]. - Steam coal: Limited rigid demand, with a weak and oscillating trend, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some position information was provided [56][58][59]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0. The spot market price is stable with some regional differences [60][61]. - p - Xylene: In a de - stocking pattern, it is strong in the short term but weak in the medium term. The suggestion is to go long on PX and short on SC, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - PTA: The basis strengthens significantly, and it is not advisable to chase the monthly spread. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - MEG: The strategy is to go long on PTA and short on MEG, and not to chase the monthly spread, with a trend strength of 0 [63][66][67]. - Rubber: Oscillates, with a trend strength of 0. There were price changes and some industry news was reported [68][69][71]. Other Commodities - LPG: The center of gravity of civil gas declines, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - PVC: Oscillates weakly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Fuel oil: Weakens slightly at night, and short - term fluctuations narrow, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly oscillates, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market rebounds slightly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Container shipping index (European line): The near - month contract is under pressure, and a short - position on the 10 - 12 spread can be lightly held, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Staple fiber: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Bottle chips: Rebounds following raw materials in the short term, and it is advisable to short the processing fee on rallies, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Palm oil: The driving force for price increase is questionable, and it is treated as oscillating for now, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean oil: The sentiment in the spot market improves, and there may be a correction at a high level, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean meal: Concerns in the spot market ease, and the futures price falls, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Soybean: Affected by the spot price fluctuation of soybean meal, it follows the decline, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Corn: Oscillates strongly, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Sugar: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Cotton: Demand restricts the rebound momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Eggs: Oscillates weakly in the spot market, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Live pigs: A phased de - stocking may start, with a trend strength not provided [4]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills, with a trend strength not provided [4].