新世纪期货交易提示（2025-4-28）-20250428

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Recommend shorting at high prices [2] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Sideways [2] - Glass: Sideways [2] - Soda ash: Sideways [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Sideways [4] - Gold: Sideways [4] - Silver: Sideways [4] - Soybean oil: Sideways [4] - Palm oil: Sideways [4] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways to weak [6] - Rapeseed meal: Sideways to weak [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways to weak [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways [6] - Rubber: Sideways [6] - Pulp: Weak sideways [6] - Logs: Sideways [7] - PX: Wait - and - see [7] - PTA: Wait - and - see [7] - MEG: Operate in the low - range [7] - PR: Wait - and - see [7] - PF: Wait - and - see [7] - Plastic: Sideways [7] - PP: Sideways [7] - PVC: Sideways [8] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market is affected by tariff disturbances and potential crude steel production restrictions, with supply expected to increase in Q2 and demand facing uncertainties [2] - The coking coal and coke market is under pressure due to high domestic production, poor steel spot sales, and unfulfilled price increases [2] - The rebar market is in a neutral valuation, with supply contraction expected from production restrictions and weakening demand [2] - The glass market has cost increases in the far - month contracts, but demand remains weak due to the real estate adjustment [2] - The stock index market shows positive signs with improved corporate profits and policy support, and long - positions can be held [4] - The Treasury bond market has a complex situation with flat yields and changing short - term rates, and long - positions can be reduced [4] - The precious metal market is influenced by central bank purchases, inflation, and geopolitical factors, with short - term uncertainties [4] - The oil and fat market is facing supply increases from Southeast Asian palm oil and South American soybeans, and is expected to be volatile [4][6] - The rubber market has supply increases and weakening demand, and is expected to be weak sideways [6] - The pulp market has falling costs and weak demand, and is expected to be weak [6] - The log market has marginal improvement in fundamentals and is expected to be sideways [7] - The petrochemical products market is affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, with different trends for each product [7][8] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to increase in Q2 as weather improves and mine maintenance ends. Steel mills may replenish stocks before the May Day holiday, but export is still under pressure due to anti - dumping and tariffs. Radical investors can hold the Iron Ore 09 contract [2] - Coking coal and coke: Domestic coking coal production is high, and the market is affected by tariffs and poor steel sales. Coke production has increased, but the second price increase has not been implemented. The overall market follows the trend of finished steel products [2] - Rebar and wire rod: After the tariff impact at the beginning of the month, the market is cautious. Supply may contract due to production restrictions, and demand is showing signs of peaking, especially in exports [2] - Glass: Cost increases in the far - month contracts due to energy - source conversion. Supply has slightly decreased, and demand is still weak due to the real estate adjustment. Inventory has been decreasing, but pressure remains [2] - Soda ash: No specific additional information other than the rating of sideways [2] Financial Industry - Stock Index: Industrial enterprise profits have improved, and the government emphasizes policy support. With the stabilization of the external market and reduced risk - aversion sentiment, long - positions can be held [4] - Treasury Bond: Yields are flat, short - term rates are changing, and the central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations. With the easing of risk - aversion, long - positions can be reduced [4] - Precious Metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing, influenced by central bank purchases, inflation, and geopolitical factors. Silver is also affected by market sentiment and economic data, with short - term uncertainties [4] Oil and Fat Industry - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: Southeast Asian palm oil is in the production - increasing season, and South American soybeans have a record harvest. Supply is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [4][6] - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal: With a large amount of imported soybeans arriving in Q2, supply will increase, and demand may become more cautious after short - term stocking. The market is expected to be weak sideways [6] - Soybean No. 1 and No. 2: Supply will gradually become more abundant as South American soybeans arrive, and the market is expected to be sideways to weak [6] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is increasing as the production season starts, and demand is weakening with the approaching May Day holiday. Inventory is still relatively high, and the market is expected to be weak sideways [6] - Pulp: The cost of raw materials is decreasing, and demand from the paper - making industry is weak. The market is expected to be weak [6] - Logs: The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the market is expected to be sideways [7] Petrochemical Industry - PX and PTA: Prices are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical factors, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [7] - MEG: Supply and demand are currently not bad, but the market is volatile due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7] - PR and PF: The PR market is strong due to factory support, and the PF market may be slightly warmer but faces pressure [7] - Plastic, PP, and PVC: These markets are affected by raw material prices, supply - demand relationships, and potential tariff policies. They are expected to be sideways, with inventory and production - capacity utilization being important factors [7][8]