准东煤制天然气管道一标段正式开工

Investment Strategy - Oil: Global oil and gas capital expenditure has declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a 122% reduction from the 2014 peak to $351 billion in 2021. Major energy companies are cautious about capital spending due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures, leading to a continued reduction in oil and gas capital expenditure [11][35][36] - Coal: The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 659 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from last week. High port inventories and weak downstream demand are limiting price increases, while coal supply remains ample [14][15] - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1380 yuan/ton. Steel production is recovering, leading to increased demand for coking coal [16][17] - Natural Gas: The commencement of the first section of the Qunzhong coal-to-natural gas pipeline marks a significant development. However, natural gas prices in the US and Europe have decreased, with NYMEX natural gas averaging $3.00 per million British thermal units, down 8.8% from last week [18][19] - Oil Services: The oil service industry is experiencing a recovery due to increased capital expenditure driven by high oil prices and supportive policies. In 2023, the total capital expenditure of the three major oil companies reached 581.738 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 6% since 2018 [20][21] Major Energy Price Changes - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is at 81.25, down 2.55% week-on-week and down 19.54% year-on-year. The industry price percentile is at 23.97% over the past 10 years, down 1.04% [22][31] - Brent crude oil price is $67.80 per barrel, up 0.36% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil price is $62.97 per barrel, up 0.74% [34][37] Oil Supply and Demand - The geopolitical conflict has heightened concerns over oil supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022. However, OPEC's ability to increase production is limited due to low spare capacity among its members [12][36] - The US active rig count is at 585, with a slight increase of 2 rigs week-on-week, indicating a stable but cautious recovery in oil production [21][37]