Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Despite the uncertainty in tariff negotiations, the long - term strategic allocation value of gold persists due to the global de - dollarization process and the demand from various economies [1]. - Silver is in a wide - range adjustment. Short - term sentiment has improved, but medium - term uncertainty is high, and the gold - silver ratio may be invalid in the short term [1]. - Copper is expected to decline in the short term, and long - term prospects are positive. Short - term investors are advised to take profits on long positions due to the approaching holiday and policy expectations [1][4][5]. - Zinc is expected to decline in the short term and has a supply - increase and demand - weak situation in the long term. Investors should look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][6][7]. - Lead prices are under pressure due to the supply - demand double - decline situation in the lead market [1]. - Tin prices are under pressure as the supply of tin ore is still restricted, and the rebound of tin prices is limited [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rebound as the supply is stable, inventories are decreasing, and downstream demand is picking up [1][8]. - Nickel prices are expected to rebound and then decline. The contradiction in the nickel ore end is prominent, and the inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing [1][9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are recommended to be short - sold on rallies. Supply may contract, but demand is weak, and high inventories are difficult to reduce [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are recommended to be short - sold on rallies. The fundamental situation has not improved, and the inventory has been accumulating for 11 weeks [1][11][12]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Market Performance: SHFE gold is at 787.2, down 0.63% from the previous value and 2.22% from last week; COMEX gold is at 3361, down 0.01% from the previous value and 2.16% from last week [2]. - Logic: Tariff negotiations are uncertain, but the impact is diminishing. Investment funds have withdrawn significantly, but the global de - dollarization process is accelerating, which supports the long - term price of gold [2]. - Strategy: Short - term investors should wait for the price to stop falling and focus on 766. Long - term investors should maintain a long - position allocation strategy [3]. Silver - Market Performance: SHFE silver is at 8280, down 0.19% from the previous value and up 0.40% from last week; COMEX silver is at 34, up 0.89% from the previous value and 3.77% from last week [2]. - Logic: Similar to gold, short - term sentiment has improved, but medium - term uncertainty is high [1]. - Strategy: Treat it with a range - trading mindset within the range of [8000, 8500] [3]. Copper - Market Performance: The price of SHFE copper has slightly declined. The current price of the main contract is 77470, down 0.22% from the previous day [4]. - Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is disrupted, and processing fees are at a low level. Demand shows resilience, but enterprises are cautious about orders due to price fluctuations and tariff policies. Inventory is decreasing, but the de - stocking may slow down [4]. - Strategy: Short - term investors should take profits on long positions and hold light or no positions during the holiday. Long - term investors are optimistic about copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [76000, 78000], and for LME copper is [9000, 9500] dollars/ton [5]. Zinc - Market Performance: The price of SHFE zinc has declined. The current price of the main contract is 22550, down 0.86% from the previous day [6]. - Logic: The supply of zinc ore is expected to increase in 2025. The import of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelter's profit has turned positive. Downstream consumption has increased after the price decline, but export demand is expected to weaken [6]. - Strategy: Short - term prices are expected to decline. Long - term investors should look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The range for SHFE zinc is [22000, 22800], and for LME zinc is [2600, 2680] dollars/ton [7]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices are strongly running, while alumina is relatively under pressure [8]. - Logic: The impact of overseas tariff policies has weakened. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum is decreasing, and downstream demand is increasing. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure in the medium term [8]. - Strategy: Investors are advised to take long positions on SHFE aluminum at low prices, focusing on the terminal peak season performance. The main operating range is [19500 - 20300]. Alumina is expected to run weakly [8]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel prices are under pressure in the rebound, and stainless steel prices have a slight rebound [9]. - Logic: The contradiction in the Indonesian nickel ore end is prominent. The production of nickel ore is lower than expected, and the inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, resulting in an oversupply situation [9][10]. - Strategy: Short - term investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on the change in pure nickel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [123000 - 129000] [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2507 opened slightly lower and fluctuated widely throughout the day [11]. - Logic: The fundamental situation has not improved, and the inventory has been accumulating for 11 weeks. Downstream demand has no seasonal increase, and although short - term supply is tightened, there is a risk of price decline if the negotiation result is unfavorable [11][12]. - Strategy: The price is expected to run weakly, and investors should short - sell on rallies within the range of [67000, 70000] [12].
中辉有色观点-20250428
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-28 04:34