Soochow Securities·2025-04-28 04:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The solid waste sector is expected to enhance dividends and return on equity (ROE), supported by decreasing capital expenditures and improving free cash flow as the industry matures [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable growth, price reforms, and increased dividends, suggesting a comprehensive allocation strategy focusing on domestic demand-driven assets [11][13] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The solid waste sector is entering a mature phase, leading to improved free cash flow and higher dividends. The report highlights that the free cash flow turned positive in 2023 and is expected to continue increasing in 2024 [9] - The report tracks the performance of various companies, noting significant increases in dividends for firms like Junxin Co. and Green Power, with cash dividends of 5.07 billion CNY (+37%) and 4.18 billion CNY (+100%) respectively for 2024 [9][10] Company Tracking - Green Power reported a 33% increase in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by reduced costs and increased heating supply, with a significant rise in free cash flow [9] - Junxin Co. achieved a revenue of 24.31 billion CNY (+31%) for 2024, with a net profit of 5.36 billion CNY (+4%) [9] - The report also highlights the performance of other companies like Jingjin Equipment and Yongxing Co., noting their dividend plans and revenue growth [9] Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Finance allocated over 13.5 billion CNY for energy-saving and emission-reduction subsidies in 2025, indicating government support for the industry [9] - The report discusses the impact of new policies on the solid waste sector, including the push for garbage treatment fee measurement and the promotion of commercial models [9] Market Performance - The report notes a 51% year-on-year increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, with a penetration rate of 14.36% [27] - The average price of biodiesel remained stable, while the price of waste cooking oil showed a slight increase, reflecting market dynamics [37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend growth and stable cash flows, such as Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Yongxing Co. [11][13] - It suggests monitoring companies involved in resource recycling and those benefiting from price reforms and domestic demand [11][13]