国新国证期货早报-20250428

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On April 25, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3295.06 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.39% to 9917.06 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.59% to 1947.19 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1113.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 450 million yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index had a narrow - range consolidation on April 25, closing at 3786.99, up 2.64 from the previous day [1]. - The coke weighted index had a range - bound oscillation on April 25, closing at 1566.4 yuan, down 21.0 from the previous day. The coking coal weighted index had a weak consolidation, closing at 946.0 yuan, up 1.7 from the previous day [1]. - Due to concerns about drought in the Brazilian sugar - producing areas, the US sugar rose on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract fell slightly in the night session on Friday [2]. - The international soybean market is supported by the expected increase in US soybean export sales due to the possible easing of the Sino - US trade deadlock. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures were weak on April 25, and the price may decline in the future [3][5]. - The main contract of live pigs LH2509 rose 0.11% to 14150 yuan/ton on April 25. The live pig futures may oscillate weakly [5]. - The palm oil continued to decline on Friday night. The 2024/25 global oil supply - demand structure is generally positive [6]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13005 yuan/ton on Friday night. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang increased [6]. - The Shanghai copper futures oscillated in a narrow range due to various factors [6]. - The iron ore 2509 main contract fell 1.87% on April 25. The iron ore market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [7]. - The asphalt 2506 main contract rose 0.68% on April 25. The asphalt market lacks upward driving force in the short term [7]. - The log 2507 contract showed certain price fluctuations on Friday. The overall demand for logs is still weak [7][8]. - With the easing of the trade war sentiment, the steel demand continues to improve, and the black - series commodities will maintain a low - level oscillatory rebound in the short term [9]. - The alumina market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and improving demand [9]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and steady inventory reduction [10]. Product - Specific Summaries Stock Index Futures - On April 25, the three major A - share indices had different trends, and the trading volume increased slightly [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The downstream demand has improved, the first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has improved [1]. - Coking coal: Some coal mines have reduced production, the coal price has a narrow - range downward oscillation, and the import of Mongolian coal is active but the price is under pressure [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Concerns about drought in Brazil have led to an increase in US sugar prices, while the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was under pressure [2]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber futures oscillated in a narrow range on Friday night, with natural rubber being stronger and 20 - number rubber being weaker [2]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean market is supported by the expected increase in US soybean exports. In the domestic market, the price may decline after the arrival of imported soybeans [3][5]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures may oscillate weakly due to the supply - demand situation [5]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price continued to decline on Friday night, but the long - term outlook for the global oil supply - demand structure is positive [6]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract had a certain closing price on Friday night, and the cotton inventory in Xinjiang increased [6]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures oscillated in a narrow range due to multiple factors [6]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 2509 main contract fell on April 25, and the market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing [7]. Asphalt - The asphalt 2506 main contract rose on April 25, and the market lacks upward driving force in the short term [7]. Logs - The log 2507 contract had price fluctuations on Friday, and the overall demand is weak [7][8]. Steel - With the easing of the trade war sentiment, the steel demand continues to improve, and the black - series commodities will rebound in a low - level oscillation in the short term [9]. Alumina - The alumina market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and improving demand [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a stage of both supply and demand increasing and steady inventory reduction [10].