澳菜籽输华潜力有多大？

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to China's 100% tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal on March 20 and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed products in 2025 are not active, and the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to tighten. However, if Australian rapeseed is allowed to be re - imported, it will narrow the supply tightening amplitude but not change the overall trend. [1][2][4] - After resolving quarantine issues, as long as there is import profit, the window for importing Australian rapeseed may open. The expected bumper harvest of EU rapeseed and the entry of Canadian rapeseed into the EU will reduce the EU's demand for Australian rapeseed, increasing the quantity available for export to China. [2][14][24] - Currently, it is the trough period of Australian rapeseed export, so China may purchase less Australian rapeseed before September and focus on the new crop after September. [2][19][24] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Australia Rapeseed Industry Introduction - Australia's rapeseed production has shown a fluctuating upward trend in the past decade. It reached a record high of 8273,000 tons in 2022 and then slightly declined to 5,940,000 tons in 2024. The growth cycle is from April - June for sowing, July - September for the key growth period, and after October for harvesting. [5] - Australia is the world's second - largest rapeseed exporter. Its rapeseed industry is export - oriented, with most of the production directly for export. The annual export volume is 400 - 500 million tons. The main export destinations are the EU, UAE, Pakistan, and Japan, which accounted for 86% of the total export volume in 2024. [1][6][7] - China stopped importing Australian rapeseed in 2021. Although there has been news of a possible restart, the import volume of Australian rapeseed oil has always been limited due to its low export volume and China's preference for other sources. [11] Australia Rapeseed Export Capacity to China Analysis - The current price of Australian rapeseed is the lowest globally. If China allows its re - import and there is a crushing profit, China may buy ships of Australian rapeseed. [12] - Before Australian rapeseed can enter China, quarantine issues need to be resolved. There are two possible paths: Australia upgrades equipment to reduce impurity levels or China relaxes quarantine standards. [13] - China needs to compete with other countries for Australian rapeseed. However, the expected bumper harvest of EU rapeseed and the entry of Canadian rapeseed into the EU will reduce the EU's demand for Australian rapeseed, increasing the quantity available for export to China. [14][17] - The 15 - ship rapeseed purchase may be distributed over the remaining 8 months of 2025. China may prefer to buy the new crop after September. Australian rapeseed is difficult to fully replace the gap left by Canadian rapeseed, and the re - import of Australian rapeseed can only slightly ease the tight domestic rapeseed supply. [19] - In 2025, China's rapeseed supply is expected to change from loose to tight, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to decline. The re - import of Australian rapeseed cannot change the overall tight supply trend. [20]