Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of polyolefins remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, and there is an expectation of a continued decline in the price center of crude oil on the cost side. Therefore, the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. For L2509, the focus range is [7050 - 7250], and for PP2509, it is [7050 - 7200] this week and [7050 - 7170] next week. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3][4][5]. Summary Based on Directories This Week's Review PE - Viewpoint Review: The supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a volatile and weak trend. The new 208 - million - ton devices of Wanhua and others were put into production in the first quarter, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in April. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, as demand gradually weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals is increasing. The L2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250], and the short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3]. - Viewpoint Review: The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [7086 - 7220] this week, basically in line with expectations. The weekly output increased for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.5%. The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and the market fluctuated weakly [3]. PP - Viewpoint Review: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Some devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and it is expected that the output will decrease slightly. Currently, the propane import gap has not significantly affected the PP end, and the PDH operating rate is basically the same as the same period in previous years. In terms of valuation, due to the double - weak situation of coal, the profits of oil - based and coal - based production are significantly higher than the same period last year, and there is still room to short the profits. In the short term, the operation of PDH devices is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200] [5]. - Viewpoint Review: The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [7056 - 7148] this week, basically in line with expectations. The supply - side output was 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. The downstream operating rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, showing a situation of weak supply and demand, and the total commercial inventory has declined for 2 consecutive weeks [5]. Next Week's Outlook PE - The supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds. The new 258 - million - ton devices of Wanhua, Exxon, etc. have been put into production since the beginning of the year, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in the second quarter. The import volume decreased significantly in March, and the import margins of LL and LD are negative. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industry chain is increasing. The L2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250]. Currently, the concentration of short positions in the 09 contract is relatively high. As the long holiday approaches, if a large number of short positions are closed for profit, the market may rebound periodically. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [4]. PP - High maintenance cannot offset high production, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices such as Ningbo Taishu and Ningxia Baofeng were shut down unexpectedly at the end of the week, and the maintenance losses will be postponed to next week. Although the supply pressure has been marginally relieved, according to data, the planned new maintenance volume before May is less than the device restart volume, and the 955,000 - ton new device of Exxon was put into production in late April. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7170] [6]. PE - Related Data - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 76% - 87%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change [7]. - Weekly Fundamental Data: The PE main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The PE output has increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has decreased slightly. The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has changed to varying degrees, and the position volume has increased significantly [8]. - Production and Inventory: This week's PE output is 640,000 tons, increasing for 5 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.5%. Next week, it is expected that the total output will be 658,700 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons compared with this week [18]. - Import and Export: From January to March, the cumulative PE import volume was 3.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Currently, the import margins of LL and LD have turned negative, and the import pressure will gradually ease. It is expected that the total import volume of polyethylene in April and May will be about 1.01 million tons and 950,000 tons respectively [28]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40% (a week - on - week increase of 0.01 pct). The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the packaging industry is running at a low level [31][37][40]. - Cost and Profit: The profit is at a relatively high level compared with the same period [45]. - Position Volume: As of April 25th, the net short position of the L2509 main contract accounts for 63%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Guotai, Qiankun, and CITIC [50][51]. PP - Related Data - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 77% - 79%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change. The 50 - million - ton fourth line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's production plan has been postponed to mid - June [52]. - Weekly Fundamental Data: The PP main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The output has decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased [53]. - Supply: This week's PP output is 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. Due to the unexpected shutdown of multiple devices at the end of the week, the production capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline, and it is expected to run at around 74% next week [61]. - Import and Export: In March, PP turned into a net exporter again [69]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the raffia is at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The profit of BOPP is relatively low, and the operating rate of PP non - woven fabrics is running smoothly [71][72][75][81]. - Cost and Profit: The profit is at a relatively high level [87]. - Position Volume: As of April 25th, the net short position of the PP2509 main contract accounts for 51%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Dongzheng, CITIC, and Guotai [106][107].
聚烯烃周报：供给依旧充沛，反弹偏空-20250428
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-04-28 05:29