中辉期货：农产品观点-20250428

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - 豆粕: Short - term decline. The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase on soybean meal is limited. South American soybean production is set, and US soybean planting has started smoothly. China will import over 10 million tons of soybeans per month from April to June. With ample rainfall expected for US soybeans in the next 15 days and the concentrated import supply season starting in April, the soybean meal market is bearish in the short - term [1][2]. - 菜粕: Short - term rebound. Low inventory of rapeseed meal at oil mills supports the spot price. The increasing spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the substitution of rapeseed meal. However, the sharp rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. Also, the continuous increase in Canadian rapeseed prices supports domestic rapeseed meal prices. But beware of the supply pressure from the new rapeseed harvest [1][7]. - 棕榈 oil: Short - term rebound. In April, the supply and demand of international palm oil both increased, with a possible downward trend in price. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. Pay attention to international price guidance, and the near - month contracts may be strongly supported [1][9]. - 棉花: Limited rebound. US cotton sowing is ongoing with improving soil moisture, which is bearish for the market. The tariff war is in a buffer stage, and demand is expected to pick up, but the overall market recession expectation remains. In China, the new cotton sowing is over half - done, and the demand is weak. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price will fluctuate within a range [1][11]. - 红枣: Weak operation. Currently, there are few disturbances in the planting area, and the supply in the downstream market is sufficient. After the traditional consumption off - season, there are no bright spots, and fresh fruits are crowding out the market. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [1][15]. - 生猪: Low - level oscillation. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, and the oversupply pressure will dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weakening, and the consumer demand lacks growth momentum. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [1][18]. Summary by Variety 豆粕 - International: The impact of Sino - US trade tariff increase is limited. South American soybean production is determined, and US soybean planting has started with smooth progress and favorable weather prospects [2]. - Domestic: From April to June, the monthly import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, domestic port and oil - mill soybeans have been accumulating for three weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing, and the spot supply is tight. Due to low inventory and tight supply, near - month contracts are strong, but the main contract has not broken the short - term adjustment pattern [2][3]. - Price and Spread: The main contract closed at 3031 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The national average spot price was 3968.57 yuan/ton, down 2.31%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 697.4996 yuan/ton, down 51.24 yuan/ton. The basis of various contracts has increased, and there are changes in cross - variety and cross - period spreads [2]. 菜粕 - Inventory and Price Support: As of April 18, coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, and rapeseed meal inventory was low. Low inventory supports the spot price. The increasing price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduces substitution, but the rise in soybean meal prices drives up rapeseed meal prices. The increase in Canadian rapeseed prices also supports domestic prices [7]. - Price and Spread: The main contract closed at 2684 yuan/ton, down 1.50%. The national average spot price was 2714.21 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 578.177 yuan/ton, an increase of 54.08 yuan/ton. There are changes in basis, cross - variety, and cross - period spreads [4]. 棕榈油 - Inventory and Market Sentiment: As of April 18, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 38.44 million tons, up 3.58% week - on - week. The market sentiment shows that the proportions of those who are bullish, bearish, and neutral remain unchanged. The main contract closed at 8376 yuan/ton, up 1.77% [8][9]. - Production and Price Outlook: In April, the production of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 20 increased by 19.88% compared to the same period last month. The price is in a rebound trend, and near - month contracts may be strongly supported. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies, crude oil prices, and Malaysian palm oil export data in April [9]. 棉花 - International: As of April 20, the US cotton planting rate was 11%. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to improve with rainfall. In Brazil, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas has slightly deteriorated [11]. - Domestic: The intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 4376.3 million mu, up 1.5% year - on - year. The planting progress in Xinjiang is 62.3%, slightly faster than the same period. The spring peak season is ending, and the demand is weak. However, domestic retail and foreign trade exports show some resilience [12]. - Price and Related Data: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12990 yuan/ton, with no change. The domestic spot average price was 14241 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. There are changes in basis, cross - period spreads, and related profit and inventory data [10][11]. 红枣 - Production and Market: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the short - term weather impact is small. The inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly, and the market trading is light. With the arrival of fresh fruits, the demand for jujubes is expected to decline [14][15]. 生猪 - Supply and Demand: The main contract LH2509 closed at 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply pressure in April - June is limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The demand has a slight increase but remains low. The inventory is gradually increasing [16][17]. - Price and Related Data: The national average spot price of live pigs was 14980 yuan/ton, down 0.20%. There are changes in basis, spreads, inventory, and profit data [16].