固定收益市场周观察：债市静待新催化剂

Group 1: Report Core View - The bond market experienced a "roller coaster" in Q1 2025, with interest rates rising unexpectedly and then falling from late March. Currently, interest rates have no clear direction and may continue to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for new catalysts from the fundamentals or the central bank [6][12][13] - The subsequent trend of the capital market remains uncertain. Historically, the capital interest rates tend to fluctuate upward from May to June, and the central bank's over - issuance of MLF has dampened market expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6][12] - In the credit bond market, the net financing in the week of April 21 - 27 exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, with spreads widening [6][16][17] - In the convertible bond market, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose last week. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year, especially with the decrease in the number of outstanding convertible bonds [6][19] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Observation and Thinking 2.1 Interest - rate Bonds - The bond market is waiting for new catalysts. Interest rates may continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long - duration interest - rate bonds while maintaining liquidity [6][12][13] 2.2 Credit Bonds - In the week of April 21 - 27, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 546.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase from the previous week. The total repayment was 430.6 billion yuan, also a 28% increase. The net financing reached 115.9 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and the valuation and spreads of credit bonds showed certain changes [16][17][78] 2.3 Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is likely to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to buy on dips. The convertible bond market followed the rise of the equity market last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 0.90%. It is optimistic about the allocation demand for convertible bonds this year [18][19] 2.4 This Week's Attention and Important Data Release - This week, important data to be released include China's official manufacturing PMI for April, the US ADP employment data for April, and the eurozone's economic sentiment index for April [20][21] 2.5 This Week's Estimated Supply of Interest - rate Bonds - This week, the estimated issuance of interest - rate bonds is 233.1 billion yuan, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds. The planned issuance of local bonds is 93.1 billion yuan, and the estimated actual issuance of policy - financial bonds is about 140 billion yuan [22] Group 3: Interest - rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Conditions - The central bank maintained a net injection through reverse repurchase. The total injection through reverse repurchase was 882 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an unexpected 600 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open - market operations was 774 billion yuan. The trading volume in the capital market remained high, and the prices decreased [26][27] 3.2 The Bond Market Continues to Swing Around the Expectation of Loose Monetary Policy - Recent central bank actions such as the unchanged LPR, the over - issuance of MLF, and the central bank's statements have led to fluctuations in bond market interest rates, which mainly increased. On April 25, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds increased compared to the previous week [38] Group 4: High - frequency Data - On the production side, most of the operating rates increased. On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car wholesale and retail sales remained positive, while land and property sales showed different trends. In terms of prices, crude oil prices declined, copper and aluminum prices rose, and coal prices were divided [50][51] Group 5: Credit Bond Review 5.1 Negative Information Monitoring - From April 21 to 27, 2025, there were bond defaults and overdue events, and some companies had their ratings or outlooks downgraded or faced other negative events [77][78] 5.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance of credit bonds increased, and the net financing exceeded 100 billion yuan. The issuance cost of high - grade bonds increased, and there were 14 bonds whose issuance was cancelled or postponed [78][79] 5.3 Secondary Trading - The valuation of credit bonds rose slightly, and the spreads widened. The turnover rate decreased slightly, and most of the top - ten turnover bonds were issued by central and state - owned enterprises. The number of high - discount bonds decreased slightly, and most of them were real - estate enterprise bonds [17][82][92]