燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：淡季到来、欧洲储库目标或放松，全球气价回落-20250428

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a seasonal decline in demand and potential relaxation of European storage targets, leading to a global price drop for gas [1][10] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to increased tariffs on US LNG imports, which may impact their cost structures and pricing strategies [49] Price Tracking - As of April 25, 2025, global gas prices have decreased week-on-week: US HH by 7.2%, European TTF by 8.6%, East Asia JKM by 6.7%, and China's LNG ex-factory price by 0.6% [10][11] - The average total supply of natural gas in the US decreased by 0.9% week-on-week to 1,113 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 6.9% to 957 billion cubic feet per day [16][23] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a significant drop in residential and commercial gas consumption in the US, with a 31.7% week-on-week decline in the residential sector [16] - In Europe, the gas consumption for April 2025 is projected at 605 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, despite ongoing efforts to reduce consumption due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [18] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report indicates that 61% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with a proposed increase of 0.20 yuan per cubic meter [38] - The pricing gap for major city gas companies is expected to continue to narrow, indicating a potential for further price adjustments [38] Important Events - The EU has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets, which may alleviate market pressures and improve sentiment [48] - The report discusses the increase of tariffs on US LNG to 140%, noting that the impact on supply will be limited due to the small proportion of US LNG in China's total imports [45] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and adapt to the evolving pricing mechanisms, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas, which have attractive dividend yields [49] - It also suggests monitoring companies with strong long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares, for potential investment opportunities [49]