Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The economic growth in Q1 2025 was strong and higher than market expectations, with accelerating consumption growth, infrastructure investment, and high - speed manufacturing investment, and the net export far exceeding expectations due to the export - rush effect. The U.S. has been sending signals of trade relaxation with China, and the Politburo meeting indicated that new incremental policies would be introduced as needed, which strongly supported the domestic market risk preference and led to a continuous increase in overall domestic risk preference. The report suggests a cautious long - position strategy [3][32] Summaries by Directory 1. Stock Market Review - The CSI 300 index closed at 3786.99 points, up 0.39% from the previous value; the SSE 50 index closed at 2648.81 points, down 0.42%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5627.18 points, up 1.26%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 5939.50 points, up 1.71%. In terms of trading volume, the CSI 300 index had a cumulative trading volume of 1.0914 trillion yuan last week, with an average daily trading volume of 218.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7 billion yuan from the previous value. The top five performing industries were comprehensive finance (6.07%), automobiles (4.94%), communications (3.16%), power equipment and new energy (3.07%), and comprehensive (2.77%); the bottom five were transportation (- 0.88%), coal (- 1.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.38%), food and beverage (- 2.40%), and consumer services (- 3.70%). The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed at 3739.2 points (up 0.77%), 2628.0 points (down 0.21%), 5498.6 points (down 0.95%), and 5786.6 points (up 2.35%) respectively [5] 2. Capital Situation - The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.7916 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.1 billion yuan from the previous week. The net capital purchases of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 indexes last week were - 22.6 billion yuan, - 5.7 billion yuan, and - 17.5 billion yuan respectively [7] 3. Futures Index Review - The IF main contract closed at 3739.2 points, up 0.77% from the previous value, with a cumulative trading volume of 226,231 lots and an average daily trading volume of 45,246 lots, a decrease of 4713 lots from the previous value; the IH main contract closed at 2628.0 points, down 0.21%, with a cumulative trading volume of 117,628 lots and an average daily trading volume of 23,526 lots, a decrease of 3062 lots from the previous value; the IC main contract closed at 5498.6 points, down 0.95%, with a cumulative trading volume of 208,995 lots and an average daily trading volume of 41,799 lots, an increase of 2249 lots from the previous value; the IM main contract closed at 5786.6 points, up 2.35%, with a cumulative trading volume of 696,711 lots and an average daily trading volume of 139,342 lots, a decrease of 5275 lots from the previous value [15] 4. Position Capital Situation - The IF position amount was 65.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan from the previous week; the IH position amount was 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.07 billion yuan; the IC position amount was 53.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.38 billion yuan; the IM position amount was 89.19 billion yuan, an increase of 0.08 billion yuan. The position amounts of IF for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter were 13.3 billion yuan, 36.68 billion yuan, 14.74 billion yuan, and 1.28 billion yuan respectively; those of IH were 3.52 billion yuan, 8.48 billion yuan, 3.25 billion yuan, and 0.27 billion yuan; those of IC were 13.8 billion yuan, 26.14 billion yuan, 11.7 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan; those of IM were 18.96 billion yuan, 46.59 billion yuan, 19.39 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan [21] 5. Spread Situation - In terms of basis, the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.19 points, - 3.81 points, - 44.98 points, and - 54.50 points respectively; in terms of spreads, the spreads of IF contracts for next - month minus current - month, current - quarter minus next - quarter, and next - quarter minus current - quarter were - 35.60 points, - 57.60 points, and - 23.20 points respectively; those of IH contracts were - 17.00 points, - 32.20 points, and - 3.60 points; those of IC contracts were - 83.60 points, - 127.20 points, and - 92.60 points; those of IM contracts were - 98.40 points, - 161.80 points, and - 124.80 points. In terms of ratios, the ratios of IF to IH for the current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter were 1.4271, 1.4228, 1.4183, and 1.4113 respectively; those of IC to IH were 2.1105, 2.0923, 2.0693, and 2.0364; those of IM to IH were 2.2250, 2.2019, 2.1669, and 2.1217 [26] 6. Summary and Outlook - The CSI 300 index closed at 3786.99 points last week, up 0.39% from the previous value; the cumulative trading volume was 562.718 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume was 218.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.7 billion yuan from the previous value. The margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.7916 trillion yuan. The top five performing industries were comprehensive finance (6.07%), automobiles (4.94%), communications (3.16%), power equipment and new energy (3.07%), and comprehensive (2.77%); the bottom five were transportation (- 0.88%), coal (- 1.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.38%), food and beverage (- 2.40%), and consumer services (- 3.70%). The main logic was that in Q1 2025, due to accelerating consumption growth, infrastructure investment, and high - speed manufacturing investment, and the net export far exceeding expectations due to the export - rush effect, the economic growth was strong and higher than market expectations. The U.S. sent signals of trade relaxation with China, and the Politburo meeting indicated that new incremental policies would be introduced as needed, which strongly supported the domestic market risk preference and led to a continuous increase in overall domestic risk preference. The operation suggestion was to be cautiously long [32]
股指期货周报：美国持续释放关税缓和信号，股指整体反弹-20250428
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-04-28 05:57