纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1纯碱市场 - Low - price soda ash manufacturers' terminal and spot - futures orders have improved, some manufacturers have closed orders and have no pressure, while high - price manufacturers have high inventories, and the differentiation between manufacturers continues [9]. - The long - term players replicate the February strategy, using centralized maintenance to drive positive feedback between spot and futures. Currently, low - price upstream has no pressure and lacks the motivation to cut prices in the short term, but the pricing power of the futures market is strengthened after the middle - stream inventory increases. The trend of short - selling remains unchanged, but it is advisable to be cautious before the end of the positive feedback atmosphere [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the market sentiment to improve. Follow - up attention should be paid to the changes in production lines, the digestion progress of low - price spot - futures sources, and the changes in the spot volume - price sentiment in the main production areas [174]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - Supply: The total weekly production is 75.51 million tons, with heavy - soda production at 41.55 million tons and light - soda production at 33.96 million tons. The import is 0.07 million tons, and the export is 4.2 million tons. The supply is generally at a high level, and there are short - term fluctuations in production. There are plans for maintenance in May, and potential incremental production awaits the full - capacity operation of Jiangsu Debang and the subsequent trial operation of Lianyungang Soda Plant [8]. - Demand: The heavy - soda consumption is 34.35 million tons, and the light - soda apparent demand is 30.87 million tons. The apparent demand for soda ash is 77.54 million tons. The market's expectation for terminal finished product demand is weak, but the short - term apparent demand may be boosted by the positive feedback between the futures and the spot market [8]. - Inventory: The alkali - plant inventory is 169.10 million tons, and the social inventory is 33.85 million tons. The positive feedback may relieve the upstream pressure recently, and the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - Valuation: The cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1501 yuan, and the profit is - 111 yuan. The cost of the combined - soda process is 1198 yuan, and the profit is 92 yuan. The Huazhong heavy - soda and light - soda price difference is 40 yuan, and the Shahe market price basis is 20 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - The monthly production, apparent demand, and production - sales ratio of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 are presented. The current import volume of soda ash is 0.32 million tons, the export volume is 19.43 million tons, the average import price is 210.21 yuan, and the average export price is 189.96 yuan [15][16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Period - spot price comparison: The price trends of soda ash futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price, and glass futures price index from 2020 to 2025 are shown [24][25][26][27]. - Soda ash contract basis: The basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 are presented [29][31][32]. - Soda ash contract inter - period spread: The spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 from 2021 to 2026 are shown [34][35][36]. - Glass - soda ash contract/spot spread: The spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2022 to 2025 are presented [38][39][40][42]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Shahe area: The current market price of heavy - soda in Shahe is 1341 yuan, with a weekly increase of 51 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 809 yuan [47]. - Regional price differences between heavy and light soda ash: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, etc. are shown, and their price changes from April 18th to April 25th are presented [51]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Start - stop situation: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or reducing production loads, and there are also planned maintenance arrangements for some manufacturers in May [89]. - Start - up rate: The current domestic soda ash start - up rate is 89.44%, with a weekly decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.83 percentage points [90]. - Cost and profit: The cost and profit trends of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the prices of relevant raw materials such as synthetic ammonia, limestone, etc. [101][103][105][107][113]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Heavy - soda demand: The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass and float glass, the daily consumption of heavy - soda, and the weekly demand for heavy - soda from 2021 to 2025 are presented [136][138][139][140]. - Weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio: The weekly consumption and production - sales ratio of light - soda, heavy - soda, and soda ash from 2020 to 2025 are presented [142]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - The current alkali - plant inventory is 169.1 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 2.03 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 80.01 million tons. The inventory days are 14.13 days [150]. - The inventory trends of alkali - plants, light - soda, and heavy - soda in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [151][155][157]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,775 tons, with a weekly decrease of 700 tons. The weekly production is 110.44 million tons, with a decrease of 0.49 million tons [172]. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 108.47 million tons, with a decrease of 3.09 million tons. The market sentiment suppresses the apparent demand, but the pre - holiday restocking promotes the month - on - month increase [172]. - Inventory: The factory - warehouse inventory is 327.37 million tons, with an increase of 1.98 million tons. The continuous inventory reduction has ended, and inventories have increased in most regions except Southwest and Northwest China [172]. - Valuation: The cost and profit of natural - gas - fired, coal - gas - fired, and petroleum - coke - fired glass production lines are presented. The cost of the natural - gas - fired line is 1446 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cost of the coal - gas - fired line is 960 yuan, and the profit is 268 yuan; the cost of the petroleum - coke - fired line is 1079 yuan, and the profit is 101 yuan [172]. 3.9 Glass Monthly Supply and Demand - The monthly production, import, and export volume of flat glass and float glass from 2020 to 2025 are presented [179][181][184]. 3.10 Glass Basis and Spread - Period - spot price comparison: The price trends of soda ash futures price index, glass futures price index, Shahe area heavy - soda market price, and Shahe glass 5mm large - plate tax - included price from 2020 to 2025 are shown [188][189][190][191]. - Glass contract basis: The basis trends of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 are presented [193][194][195]. - Glass contract inter - period spread: The spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 from 2020 to 2026 are shown [198][199][200]. - Glass - soda ash contract/spot spread: The spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts from 2021 to 2026 and the spot spread of Shahe glass 5mm large - plate glass - soda ash from 2022 to 2025 are presented [203][205][206][207]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, East China, etc. and their price changes from April 18th to April 25th are shown [210]. - The price trends of 5mm float glass in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [212][214][215]. 3.12 Glass Supply - Profit of float glass: The current profit of coal - gas - fired float glass enterprises is 145.05 yuan, that of petroleum - coke - fired enterprises is - 38.35 yuan, and that of natural - gas - fired enterprises is - 153.13 yuan [245]. - Production line dynamics: The cold - repair, ignition, and new - construction/复产 situations of float glass production lines in 2024 and 2025 are presented [252][253][254][256]. - Start - up situation: The current number of operating float glass production lines is 225, the start - up rate is 75.85%, and the in - production capacity is 157,775 tons per day [257]. 3.13 Glass Demand - Apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of float glass: The apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of float glass from 2020 to 2025 are presented [269][270]. - Deep - processing start - up rate and capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate and start - up rate of glass tempering furnaces from 2022 to 2025 are presented [273][274]. 3.14 Glass Inventory - The current inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 327.37 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.98 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 25.50 million tons. The inventory days are 29.4 days [277]. - The inventory trends of float glass in different regions from 2020 to 2025 are presented [281][283][284]. 3.15 Warehouse Receipt Quantity/Valid Forecast - The current number of glass warehouse receipts is 2441, with a weekly decrease of 625. The number of soda ash warehouse receipts is 3930, with a weekly decrease of 150 [294]. - The valid forecast trends of soda ash warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 are presented [300][301][303]. 3.16 Real Estate - Related Data - New housing construction area: The cumulative and monthly new housing construction areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [315][317][318]. - Housing construction area: The cumulative and monthly housing construction areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [321][323][324]. - Housing completion area: The cumulative and monthly housing completion areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [327][329][330]. - Housing sales area: The cumulative and monthly housing sales areas and their year - on - year growth rates from 2020 to 2025 are presented [333][335][336].