现货供需支撑仍在，油价短期维持震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil: The supply - demand situation provides strong support, and oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][44] - Asphalt: Short - term production scheduling has slightly increased, and the increase may be less than that of upstream products [3][44] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil Supply - OPEC+ increased production by 411,000 barrels in May, Venezuela's cooperative production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day in April, and Iran's transportation is still at risk of continued sanctions [43] Demand - It is the seasonal off - peak season for crude oil, but refined oil products have shown better - than - expected performance, and short - term demand is acceptable [43] Inventory - The inventory of refined oil products has decreased significantly, the crude oil inventory remains at a neutral level, and the overall inventory pressure is small [43] Profit - Refinery profits have rebounded, especially those in the US Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions [43] Spread - The monthly spread has rebounded significantly [43] Conclusion - In the short term, the risk resonance effect of the decline of overseas risk assets due to stagflation concerns has led to a drop in oil prices, and OPEC's production increase has worsened the situation. However, the supply - demand level is acceptable, and oil prices have stabilized [43] Operation - Short - term fluctuations are still large, and it is advisable to wait and see first [43] Asphalt Supply - Short - term production is not very high, but recent maintenance volume has decreased. Supply may decline slightly after the maintenance volume increases later [89] Demand - Downstream projects have not recovered substantially, and the overall procurement rhythm is still slow [89] Inventory - Manufacturer inventories remain stable, and social inventories have increased significantly [89] Profit - Oil prices have rebounded recently, but the increase in asphalt prices is limited, and profits have declined significantly [89] Spread - The monthly spread has weakened slightly [89] Conclusion - The historical decline in oil prices has driven down asphalt prices, and the current demand situation is still average. There is no obvious upward driving force for prices recently, but production scheduling may decrease later, and it will remain in a low - level shock in the short term [89] Operation - The absolute price follows oil prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the contraction of the monthly spread [89]