东海原油聚酯周度策略：油价稳定，下游负反馈或持续发酵-20250428

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]