南华尿素产业链数据周报20250427-20250428

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for urea is under pressure. As the May Day holiday approaches, urea compound fertilizer downstream will increase replenishment moderately. Currently, mid - stream distributors have about 50% of the goods, and the progress of mid - stream distribution to the lower reaches is low. After May Day, the terminal grass - roots market is expected to start. During the agricultural demand slack period, traders may make appropriate low - price purchases based on the price. The weak urea expectation is gradually reflected in the 09 contract. Before entering the agricultural demand off - season, urea is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern. Overall, the urea fundamentals are in a state where the supply - demand pattern is gradually strengthening, and attention should be paid to the sentiment reversal of the urea 09 contract [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - In this cycle, some enterprises such as Shandong Runyin Biochemical, Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer, Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Wushi Petrochemical, and Shanxi Tianze Coal Chemical are under maintenance. The enterprises that have resumed production are Henan Jinkong Tianqing Coal Chemical, Shandong Union Chemical, and Shandong Runyin Biochemical. Next week, the daily urea production will be around 193,000 tons [5] Inventory - As of April 23, 2025, the domestic urea enterprise inventory is 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 158,800 tons, and the urea inventory at major Chinese ports is 117,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons [5] Demand - In the agricultural market, there are obvious north - south differences. The four provinces of Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Shanxi are in the gap period after spring plowing fertilization and before summer corn fertilization. In some rice - growing areas in the south, the terminal fertilization rhythm is affected by factors such as drought. In the industrial aspect, compound fertilizer factories have sufficient raw material inventory, so their purchasing enthusiasm is limited, and other panel factories maintain a lukewarm purchasing rhythm. It is expected that the market demand will be mainly sporadic and phased replenishment in the short term [5] Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong is 1,750 (05 basis - 7), and the price in Henan is 1,730 (05 basis - 27) [6]