格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250428

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "slightly long" rating for TL, T, TF, and TS in the macro and financial bond sector [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The first - quarter economic data is good, with policy support and export - rushing factors. The GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the profits in the first quarter continued to recover. Future policies may include timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher. After rising slowly in the morning and then falling back, they quickly rose due to important meeting news in the afternoon and then fluctuated and fell back. As of the close, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures TL2506 rose 0.28%, the 10 - year T2506 rose 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2506 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.04% [1] 2. Important Information - Open Market Operations: On Friday, the central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 250.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 509 billion yuan on the same day. On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Funds Market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.58% throughout the day, and that of DR007 was 1.64%. On April 27, the weighted average of DR001 was 1.61%, and that of DR007 was 1.71% [1] - Cash Bond Market: On April 27, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with last Friday. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.50 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year increased by 0.10 BP to 1.54%, the 10 - year increased by 0.01 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.93% [1] - Policy Information: On April 25, the Politburo meeting pointed out that policies such as timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts should be implemented to support the real economy, consolidate the real estate market, and stabilize and activate the capital market [1][3] - Economic Data: In March, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and in the first quarter, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1.50936 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The profits of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter increased by 7.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing in March increased by 14.3% year - on - year [1][3] 3. Market Logic - The good economic data in the first quarter is due to policy support and export - rushing factors. It is believed that the high tariffs between China and the US are difficult to resolve in the short term. The Politburo meeting proposed policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3]