南华纸浆周报：节前降波，压力仍在-20250428

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is that the volatility of pulp prices decreased before the holiday, but the pressure still remains. Last week, pulp futures prices showed a volatile trend with a decrease in open interest, dominated by short - position reduction. The SP2507 main contract rose 14 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase, closing at 5376 yuan/ton. Domestic coniferous pulp spot prices changed slightly, while broad - leaf pulp prices declined [5]. - Chile's Arauco company adjusted its April 2025 wood pulp export quotes: coniferous pulp was lowered by 55 dollars to 770 dollars/ton, natural pulp by 40 dollars to 650 dollars/ton, and broad - leaf pulp by 70 dollars to 560 dollars/ton. In March, domestic imports of coniferous wood chips decreased significantly, while broad - leaf wood chips increased. Coniferous pulp imports decreased slightly, broad - leaf pulp imports decreased, and other types of pulp imports had different changes [6]. - The short - term fundamental drivers of pulp are in a stalemate. The supply of coniferous pulp is relatively stable, while the supply of broad - leaf pulp is relatively abundant, and the price difference between the two continues to widen. The short - term spot market sentiment is dominated by broad - leaf pulp prices, showing a weak and volatile pattern. The futures price of coniferous pulp is affected by the macro and commodity environment, with reduced short - term open interest and volatility. Due to the May Day holiday, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment and increased futures margin will reduce market liquidity, and price fluctuations are expected to be repeated. Domestic pulp port inventories remain high, and the short - term upward pressure on pulp prices still exists [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core View and Review - Market Performance: The SP2507 main contract rose 14 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase, closing at 5376 yuan/ton. Domestic coniferous pulp spot prices changed slightly, and broad - leaf pulp prices declined. Arauco adjusted its wood pulp export quotes, and domestic pulp imports had different changes in March [5][6]. - Core Logic: The short - term fundamental drivers of pulp are in a stalemate. The supply of coniferous pulp is relatively stable, and broad - leaf pulp is relatively abundant. The price difference between the two continues to widen. The short - term spot market sentiment is dominated by broad - leaf pulp prices, showing a weak and volatile pattern. The futures price of coniferous pulp is affected by the macro and commodity environment, with reduced short - term open interest and volatility. Due to the holiday, market liquidity will decrease, and price fluctuations are expected to be repeated. Domestic pulp port inventories remain high, and the short - term upward pressure on pulp prices still exists [7]. Weekly Data Review - Futures Prices: SP2505 rose 54 yuan/ton, a 1% increase; SP2507 rose 14 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase; SP2509 rose 6 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase [8]. - External Quotes: Coniferous pulp (Silver Star) decreased by 55 dollars/ton, a 6.67% decrease; broad - leaf pulp (Star) decreased by 70 dollars/ton, an 11.1% decrease [8]. - Domestic Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp (Shandong Silver Star) remained unchanged, coniferous pulp (Shandong Russian Needle) remained unchanged, and broad - leaf pulp (Shandong Star) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, a 2.27% decrease [8]. - Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices: White cardboard rose 7.5 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; household paper decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a 2.38% decrease; offset paper rose 33.33 yuan/ton, a 0.57% increase [8]. - Industrial Data: The basis (Silver Star - main contract) decreased by 14 yuan/ton, a 1.42% decrease; the monthly spread (05 - 09 contract) increased by 48 yuan/ton, a 46.15% increase; the coniferous - broad - leaf spread increased by 120 yuan/ton, a 6.49% increase. The production of finished paper had different changes, and the profits of finished paper also had different trends. The inventory in Qingdao Port decreased by 1.1 tons, a 0.81% decrease, and the inventory in Changshu Port increased by 4.1 tons, a 7.93% increase [9].