华金期货股指期货市场周报-20250428

Report Overview - Report Name: Weekly Report on the Stock Index Futures Market - Research Institution: Huajin Futures Research Institute - Date: April 28, 2025 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index may rebound, and investors are advised to mainly wait and see [4]. - Currently, the basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Stock Index Futures Macro and Market Outlook - Domestic News: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting, stating that the economy shows a positive trend this year and emphasizing more active macro - policies, including fiscal and monetary policies [4]. - Overseas News: European central bank governors are more confident about a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in June due to stagnant business growth, slowing wage growth, and continuous decline in inflation in the eurozone [4]. - Market Performance: The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly with low trading volume last week. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 54.3 billion yuan, and the margin trading funds decreased by 1.2 billion yuan [4]. - Technical Analysis: The CSI 300 index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume shrinking and medium - to - long - term valuations at a medium - low level [4]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Quotes and Basis - Futures Performance: IF2506 rose 0.82% to 3739.2, IH2506 fell 0.21% to 2628, IC2506 rose 1.83% to 5498.6, and IM2506 rose 2.56% to 5786.6 last week [6]. - Price and Basis: Stock index futures fluctuated after a rebound, with low market trading volume. The current basis rate of stock index futures is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [7]. - Historical Returns: Since 2024, large - cap stocks in the SSE 50 have risen 15.56%, and small - cap stocks in the CSI 1000 have risen 1.45% [7]. 3.3. Stock Index Macro and Earnings Growth - Macro Data: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line; the interest rate was 1.67%, below 3%; and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7% [10]. - Profit Situation: The year - on - year net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 rose year - on - year [10]. - Interest Rate: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was 1.67%, up 1 BP from last week [10]. 3.4. Stock Index Capital and Valuation Changes - Fund Flows: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 1.2 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares totaled 54.3 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days [13]. - Valuation: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. For example, the rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11.64, and the percentile is 36% [11][13]. 3.5. Stock Index Fundamental and Technical Analysis - Technical Analysis: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - to - long - term moving average, with declining trading volume and short - term fluctuations (neutral) [16]. - Fundamental Analysis: The medium - to - long - term monetary policy is loose, with low interest rates, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish); A - share earnings in the first three quarters increased year - on - year (bullish); margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish); the current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - to - long - term (bullish) [17]